Understanding Expected Value in Tennis Betting
Introduction
Whether you’re betting with a bookmaker or on an exchange, calculating the expected value of a trade is fundamental. This article will explain how to calculate and measure expected value and demonstrate how it can be used to find value bets in the context of tennis.
Expected Value Explained
Expected value (EV) is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. In the case of tennis betting, the expected value represents what a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet placed on the same odds repeatedly.
Expected Value Calculation
The formula to calculate expected value for tennis betting is as follows:
(Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing)
Let’s use a tennis match as an example. Assume we have a match between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, and the odds for Federer to win are 1.80. The implied probability of Federer winning is approximately 55.55%.
To calculate the expected value of a -100 bet on Federer to win:
(180 * 0.5555) – (100 * 0.4445) = -5.55
This shows an expected value of -5.55. Therefore, you would expect to make an average profit of -5.55 for each -100 bet on Federer, as the odds received are better than the implied odds.
How Expected Value Helps Tennis Bettors
By consistently finding value bets, tennis bettors can be profitable in the long run. However, it is important to note that bookmakers and exchanges typically build a margin into their odds, which can impact the expected value.
For example, if a bookmaker prices the odds on Federer to win at 1.70, the expected value calculation would yield a negative value. This implies that over time, you would lose money on average for every bet placed.
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Identifying Value Bets in Tennis
To identify value bets in tennis, bettors can calculate their own probabilities for an outcome and compare them with the implied probabilities of the odds offered by bookmakers or exchanges. If your calculated probability differs significantly from the implied probability, you may have identified a positive expected value.
Specializing in Niche Markets
One strategy to find value bets in tennis is to specialize in niche markets where the playing field is more level between bookmakers and bettors on an exchange. By understanding these markets well, you can spot odds that are skewed from your implied probability, giving you a positive expected value over time.
Arbitrage Opportunities
Another way to find positive expected value is through an arbitrage strategy, which involves exploiting odds from separate bookmakers or exchanges to form a positive expected value.
Conclusion
Understanding and calculating expected value is crucial for successful tennis betting. By consistently finding value bets and placing them over time, bettors can increase their chances of being profitable. However, it is important to note that expected value is a theoretical concept and does not guarantee immediate profits.