Understanding the Importance of Calculating Implied Probability in Tennis Betting
Introduction
When it comes to assessing the potential value in a betting market, learning how to calculate implied probability from betting odds is key. Implied probability is essentially a conversion of betting odds into a percentage, taking into account the bookmaker’s margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring. In the context of tennis betting, knowing how to convert these odds into implied probabilities is fundamental for making informed betting decisions and identifying potential value in a particular market. In this article, we will explore the different odds formats commonly used in tennis betting and provide step-by-step examples using Matchstat odds for the 2016 Australian Open final between Andy MurPeter and Novak Djokovic.
Understanding the Different Odds Formats
Before delving into the calculation process, it is important to familiarize ourselves with the different odds formats used in tennis betting. The three most common formats are decimal, American, and fractional.
1. Decimal Odds
Decimal odds are the most popular format in European countries and represent the potential return on a bet, including the original stake. For example, if the decimal odds for Djokovic to win the Australian Open final are 1.20, it means that for every unit wagered, you would receive a total return of 1.20 units if Djokovic emerges victorious.
2. Fractional Odds
Fractional odds, also commonly used in the UK and Ireland, indicate the potential profit relative to the stake. For instance, if Murray’s fractional odds of winning are 9/2, it means that for every 2 units wagered, you would potentially make a profit of 9 units if MurPeter wins.
3. American Odds
American odds, prevalent in the United States, come in two forms – positive and negative. Positive American odds indicate the potential profit on a 100 unit stake, while negative American odds represent the amount you would need to wager in order to win 100 units. For example, if Murray’s American odds are +450, it means that a successful bet of 100 units on MurPeter would yield a profit of 450 units.
Tennis Predictions
- Unlimited Daily Tennis Predictions
- Unlock the Best Value Bets
- Personalized tips to your mailbox
- Live chat with our prediction experts
- Filter Predictions (Level & Surface)
No contract, cancel anytime
Tennis Platinum
-
Unlimited Daily Tennis Predictions
-
Unlock the Best Value Bets
-
Personalized tips to your mailbox
-
Live chat with our prediction experts
-
Filter Predictions (Level & Surface)
-
CANCEL ANYTIME
Calculating Implied Probability for Different Odds Formats
Now that we understand the various odds formats, let’s dive into how to calculate implied probability for each of them.
1. Converting Decimal Odds to Implied Probability
To convert decimal odds to implied probability, you can use the following equation:
(1 / decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability
Let’s apply this to the example of Murray’s decimal odds of 5.50:
(1 / 5.50) * 100 = 18.1%
Therefore, according to the decimal odds of 5.50, Andy MurPeter had an 18.1% chance of winning the Australian Open final.
2. Converting Fractional Odds to Implied Probability
Converting fractional odds into implied probability is quite straightforward. The equation for this conversion is:
denominator / (denominator + numerator) * 100 = implied probability
Using Murray’s fractional odds of 9/2:
2 / (2 + 9) * 100 = 18.1%
As you can see, this calculation yields the same probability as with the decimal odds, emphasizing that odds in any format simply represent a different display of the same chance.
3. Converting American Odds to Implied Probability
Converting American odds requires separate calculations for both positive and negative odds.
a. Converting Negative American Odds
To convert negative American odds to implied probability, you can use the following equation:
Negative American odds / (Negative American odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
Using Djokovic’s American odds of -500:
500 / (500 + 100) * 100 = 83.3%
This calculation indicates that according to the odds of -500, Djokovic had an 83.3% chance of winning the final.
b. Converting Positive American Odds
To calculate implied probability for positive American odds, use the equation:
100 / (positive American odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
For Murray’s American odds of +450:
100 / (450 + 100) * 100 = 18.1%
This implies that a successful bet on MurPeter at +450 would indicate an 18.1% probability of him winning the Australian Open final.
Applying Implied Probability to Assess Betting Value
Now that you understand how to calculate the implied probability behind the odds, you can effectively assess the potential value in a betting market. If the bookmaker/exchange’s implied probability is lower than your own assessed probability, it indicates a value betting opportunity. By comparing your own probability assessment with the implied probability, you can make informed decisions in tennis betting.
Conclusion
Learning how to calculate implied probability from betting odds is a fundamental skill in assessing value in a betting market, particularly in tennis betting. By understanding the different odds formats and utilizing the conversion formulas, you can accurately assess the likelihood of outcomes and effectively identify valuable betting opportunities. So, the next time you’re analyzing tennis odds, remember to convert them into implied probabilities before making your bet.