Hugo Gaston vs Luca Nardi Prediction – ATP Mutua Madrid Open – 22nd April 2025 Best Bets

Hugo Gaston and Luca Nardi Prediction Head To Head Summary

Gaston vs Nardi Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Gaston has a 56.82% chance to win this match.

Gaston → 1.76. Nardi → 2.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Gaston vs Nardi Upcoming Match Details:

Gaston will play Nardi on Clay court in the Q3 round at the ATP Mutua Madrid Open event in Madrid Men’s Singles 2025 on 22nd April 2025.

Head-to-Head: Gaston 0-0 Nardi

The current Head to Head score is 0-0. Gaston comes into this match with a ranking of 80 , while Nardi is ranked 100.

Gaston vs Nardi Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Nardi has won 46% of points on his second serve, while Gaston has won 41% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Nardi has won 24% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Gaston has won 24%. The same stats for second serve return points are 45% and 45% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Nardi has been saving 54% of his breakpoints, and Gaston has saved 53% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Nardi performs best on Hard, winning 59% (W/L 57/39) and worse career win % on Grass, winning 29% (W/L 2/5). Gaston performs best on Clay, winning 61% (W/L 133/85), and performs worse on Grass, winning 44% (W/L 7/9).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Luca Nardi has converted 30% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Hugo Gaston has converted 38% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Hugo Gaston played Yannick Hanfmann in the Q1 round at the Mutua Madrid Open – Madrid and won 7-6(6) 4-6 6-4 in 02:44:29 . Luca Nardi played Manas Manoj Dhamne in the Q1 round at the Mutua Madrid Open – Madrid and won 6-4 6-4 in 01:15:43.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Hugo Gaston and Luca Nardi

Of their last 10 matches played, Gaston has won 4, while Nardi has won 3. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Clay . In recent matches, Gaston has won 53% of his own 2nd serve points and 40% of return points , while Nardi has won 48% of his own 2nd serve points and 40% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Gaston Vs Nardi

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Gaston has won 8 titles in his career, while Luca Nardi has won 10 events. Gaston has won 50% (31109 of 61907) of points played in his entire career, and Nardi has achieved 51% (22421 of 44376). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Gaston has won 58% of tie breaks in his entire career (87 of 149), whereas Luca Nardi has won 46% (51 of 112). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Hugo Gaston has an 61.99% probability of winning this match.

Hugo Gaston vs Luca Nardi Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Hugo Gaston To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Hugo Gaston has a 61.99% chance of winning and Luca Nardi has a 38.01% chance of taking the victory. We tip Gaston to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

To see all live tennis scores for the Mutua Madrid Open – Madrid, go here.