Reilly Opelka vs Brandon Nakashima Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Both Reilly Opelka and Brandon Nakashima have near-identical second serve success rates, with Opelka at 48.29% and Nakashima at 48.05%. Is this enough to predict a winner? Not definitively.
• In return games, Nakashima has a slight edge, winning 42.8% of second serve points compared to Opelka's 41.03%. Is Nakashima's return advantage significant? It could be, as it's a key factor in head-to-head matchups.
• First serve return stats favor Nakashima, who has a 23.29% success rate versus Opelka's 18.77%, suggesting he may handle serve returns better in this matchup.
• Opelka demonstrates stronger breakpoint save statistics at 64% compared to Nakashima's 57.14%. Does this give Opelka an advantage under pressure? It's a possibility worth noting.
• Over the past year, Nakashima has a slightly higher match win rate at 54.93%, compared to Opelka's 53.45%, indicating a marginally better overall performance.
• Both players excel on indoor hard surfaces, with Nakashima having a slight edge with a 70% win rate over Opelka's 67%.
• On the main tour, Opelka edges slightly ahead with a 55.88% match win rate, versus Nakashima's 51.35%.
• Their head-to-head history is evenly split, each having won a match. Nakashima won their most recent encounter.
• Nakashima holds the advantage in marathon matches, winning the only deciding set they've played against each other.
• Opelka outperforms Nakashima in tiebreaks, winning the only one they've contested.
• Nakashima has faced tougher competition on average, with opponents ranked around 80.73, compared to Opelka's 97.55.
• In all deciding sets over the past year, Opelka has a 65% win rate, potentially favoring him if this match goes the distance.
• In break point scenarios, Nakashima is more efficient, converting 35.21% of chances, compared to Opelka's 22.58%.

Editorial Prediction (July 3, 2025, UTC):

This upcoming clash between Reilly Opelka and Brandon Nakashima promises to be a tightly contested match, given the evenly matched statistics across multiple areas.

Nakashima’s superior performance in returning serves, particularly on the first serve, provides a potential edge in breaking Opelka’s service games. His history of playing and succeeding against higher-ranked opponents may further tilt the balance in his favor.

However, Opelka’s strong record in tiebreaks and deciding sets cannot be overlooked, suggesting he possesses the psychological and technical endurance to prevail in longer matches. His substantial breakpoint saving capability may also play a critical role.

Despite Opelka’s strengths, Nakashima’s recent victory in their last meeting and his higher break point conversion rate suggests he may exploit more opportunities if the game heats up.

Taking all factors into account, Brandon Nakashima appears slightly more likely to secure a win in this encounter, though Opelka’s resilience and past successes remain pertinent factors.