Prediction Of Shapovalov Vs Alcaraz H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Denis Shapovalov Play Against Carlos Alcaraz?

Shapovalov and Alcaraz are on the Day 6 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Monday 10 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In the upcoming match between Denis Shapovalov (CAN) and Carlos Alcaraz (ESP), it is worth noting that Alcaraz currently leads the head to head record 1-0. Their previous encounter took place in the 2023 Roland Garros on clay, with Alcaraz emerging as the winner with a score of 6-1, 6-4, 6-2.

Denis Shapovalov, aged 25, holds the ranking of World No. 28 and has reached a career-high ranking of No. 10. In 2025, he has achieved a win-loss record of 11-4, including a title at the Dallas tournament. Notably, Shapovalov made history in 2020 as the first Canadian US Open men’s singles quarter-finalist and became the second Canadian man, alongside Raonic, to break into the Top 10.

Shapovalov’s impressive achievements include reaching the semi-finals of the 2021 Wimbledon, where he defeated 2-time champion Andy Murray and secured 5-set wins over Kohlschreiber and Khachanov. He also reached the final of the 2019 Paris tournament and the semi-finals of four other ATP Masters 1000 events. One of his notable performances was at the 2017 Montreal tournament, where he defeated No. 2 Nadal and became the youngest semi-finalist in the series’ history at the age of 18. Shapovalov has won all three of his ATP Tour titles on indoor hardcourts, with three Top 10 wins en route to his recent Dallas title. He also tasted success early in his career, winning the 2016 Wimbledon boys’ singles title and breaking into the Top 50 of the PIF ATP Rankings within 15 months.

Although Shapovalov has struggled against top-ranked players, boasting a 2-14 record against the Top 3, he has notable victories over No. 2 Nadal at the 2017 ATP Masters 1000 Montreal as an 18-year-old wild card entry, and No. 3 Zverev in the 2022 Australian Open fourth round. His current goal is to reach the ATP Masters 1000 round of 16 for the first time since the 2022 Cincinnati tournament. In 2025, he has a perfect 3-0 record against Top 10 players, achieving all three wins on his way to the Dallas title.

Carlos Alcaraz is a 21-year-old player hailing from Spain, currently ranked as World No. 3 and having reached a career-high ranking of No. 1. Having had an impressive record in 2025 with a win-loss record of 12-2 and winning the Rotterdam title, he has demonstrated his rising talent. Alcaraz achieved a historic feat by becoming the youngest and first teenage World No. 1 in PIF ATP Rankings history. At the age of 19, he rose from No. 32 to No. 1 in September 2022, spending a total of 36 weeks as the top-ranked player. He secured his first Grand Slam title at the 2022 US Open, defeating Ruud and becoming the youngest men’s champion at the event since Sampras in 1990 and at any Grand Slam event since Nadal at the 2005 Roland Garros.

Alcaraz’s success continued as he won the 2024 Roland Garros, becoming the youngest man to win a Grand Slam title on all three surfaces. He defeated Sinner in the semi-finals and Zverev in the final, showcasing his ability to conquer five-set matches. He defeated the 7-time champion Djokovic in the Wimbledon finals of 2023-24 and became the second man in the Open Era to win his first four Grand Slam finals. Additionally, Alcaraz earned a silver medal at the Paris Olympics, where he became the youngest Olympic men’s finalist since 1904. He has also achieved victories as the youngest ATP 500 champion at the 2022 Rio de Janeiro and the third-youngest ATP Masters 1000 champion at the 2022 Miami tournament.

Notably, Alcaraz is currently on a 13-match winning streak at the event and aims to become the first player born in 1991 or later to win the same ATP Tour event for three consecutive years. Since September, he has accumulated an 18-1 record against players ranked outside the Top 25. His only loss during this period was against No. 33 Machac at the ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai in October.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning that three players have achieved three-peats at ATP Masters 1000 events since 1990. These players are Andre Agassi at the Miami tournament (2001-2003), Roger Federer at Indian Wells (2004-2006), and Rafael Nadal at Monte-Carlo (2005-2012, 2016-2018) and Rome (2005-2007). Novak Djokovic has accomplished this feat at the Paris tournament (2013-2015), Indian Wells (2014-2016), and Miami (2014-2016).

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Shapovalov will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction.