Prediction Of Paul Vs Medvedev H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Tommy Paul Play Against Daniil Medvedev?

Paul and Medvedev are on the Day 7 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Tuesday 11 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Tommy Paul (USA) and Daniil Medvedev (Russia) have faced each other four times in their careers, with Medvedev leading the head-to-head 3-1. Their most recent meeting was at the 2024 Indian Wells tournament, where Medvedev won the semifinal match with a score of 1-6, 7-6(3), 6-2. They have also played at the 2021 Roland Garros, 2023 Beijing, and 2024 Rome tournaments, with Medvedev winning all three matches.

In their previous meeting at Indian Wells, both players performed well with a Performance Rating above 8. They have different defensive strategies, with Paul staying closer to the baseline and hitting only 6% of shots from deep, while Medvedev hits 20% of shots from deep. Despite this difference, both players achieved a high Steal Score. Medvedev had an impressive Return Quality of 9.6 during this match, which helped him break Paul’s serve twice in the third set.

Tommy Paul, 27 years old and currently ranked 11th in the world, reached a career-high ranking of No. 9 in January 2025. In 2024, he had a successful season with a personal-best 45 wins, including winning his biggest ATP Tour title at the London/Queen’s Club tournament. He made history at the 2023 Australian Open by becoming the first American man to reach the semifinals of that event since Andy Roddick in 2009. He has a record of 7-14 against top 5 players and achieved his biggest career win over world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz at the 2023 Toronto tournament. Paul has also defeated his junior rivals Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe en route to his first ATP Tour final and title at the 2021 Stockholm tournament. He has a promising record at the Indian Wells tournament, with a 13-4 record and a semifinal appearance in 2024.

Daniil Medvedev, 29 years old and currently ranked 6th in the world, spent 16 weeks as the world No. 1 in 2022. He is known for his impressive performances against top-ranked players, holding a 5-3 record against Novak Djokovic when Djokovic was ranked No. 1. One of his notable victories was in the 2021 US Open final, where he defeated Djokovic in straight sets, denying him the calendar Grand Slam. Medvedev also made history at the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals by beating Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Dominic Thiem en route to the title, becoming the first player to sweep the top 3 players in the tournament’s history since 2007. He has won 20 singles titles, with most of them on hard courts, including six ATP Masters 1000 championships. Medvedev has a strong record at the Indian Wells tournament, with two consecutive finals appearances in 2023 and 2024.

As they face each other in the quarterfinals of the tournament, Paul aims to reach his 6th ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal, his first since Rome in May. He has a record of 12-26 against top 10 players and is looking for his first win over a top 8 opponent since defeating Medvedev in Rome last year. Medvedev, on the other hand, is playing his first match against a top 20 opponent this season and aims to reach his 80th tour-level quarterfinal.

In summary, Paul and Medvedev have had competitive matches in the past, with Medvedev holding the edge in their head-to-head record. Both players have achieved success in their careers and will be looking to advance further in the Indian Wells tournament.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Paul will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Tommy Paul vs Daniil Medvedev prediction.