Who Will Win: Paolini Vs Keys? Prediction For WTA The Championships, Wimbledon 2024

What Time Will Jasmine Paolini Play Against Madison Keys?

Paolini and Keys are on the Day 7 Schedule at The Championships, Wimbledon 2024 on Sunday July 7, 2024. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In their head-to-head record, Madison Keys is leading 1-0 against Jasmine Paolini. Keys won their only previous encounter at Dubai in 2023, and today marks their first meeting on grass.

Paolini is currently ranked at a career-high No. 7 after reaching her maiden Grand Slam final at Roland Garros this season. A win today for Paolini would be her first Top 20 win on grass. Prior to this year, Paolini had not won a Tour-level main draw match on grass. Last week at Eastbourne, she made her first grass semifinal but lost to eventual champion Kasatkina.

Before this season, Paolini had not made it past the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam. However, she is through to her third consecutive Grand Slam Round of 16 appearance this year, with previous appearances at the Australian Open and Roland Garros.

A victory for Paolini would equal the best result by an Italian woman at Wimbledon in the Open Era, joining the ranks of Camila Giorgi, Francesca Schiavone, Silvia Farina Elia, and Laura Golarsa as Wimbledon quarterfinalists.

If Keys were to win today, it would be her third Wimbledon quarterfinal appearance in her tenth overall appearance at the tournament. She has a career record of 28 wins over Top 10 players, including victories against No. 9 Jabeur at Madrid this season. Keys has already secured two Top 10 wins this year, defeating No. 3 Gauff as well.

Keys has won three career grass court titles at Eastbourne and also won the title at Birmingham in 2016. She reached the semifinals at Eastbourne earlier this grass season, losing to Fernandez. Among active players, only Venus Williams and Petra Kvitova have a better match win percentage on grass than Keys.

Moving on to their individual tournament histories, this is Paolini’s fourth appearance at Wimbledon. She has advanced past the first round for the first time this year, after falling at the opening hurdle in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Paolini has already defeated Sara Sorribes Tormo, Greet Minnen, and Bianca Andreescu to reach her third straight Grand Slam fourth round. Prior to this year, she had not advanced past the second round at a major tournament. Paolini is looking to reach her second Grand Slam quarterfinal after finishing as

the runner-up at Roland Garros this year. She has 11 wins against Top 20 players in her career, including four wins this year, with the most recent one against No. 4 Elena Rybakina at Roland Garros 2024.

Paolini has a career record of 6-15 against players from the United States, with a 2024 record of 2-2. Her best result on grass was reaching the semifinals at Eastbourne, where she earned her first career main draw wins on the surface. She is the only player from Italy to reach the fourth round at Wimbledon. The best result by an Italian player at Wimbledon was the quarterfinal runs by Camila Giorgi in 2018, Francesca Schiavone in 2009, Silvia Farina Elia in 2003, and Laura Golarsa in 1989.

Keys, on the other hand, is making her 10th appearance at Wimbledon. Her previous best result was reaching the quarterfinals in 2023, where she lost to Sabalenka. She also reached the quarterfinals here in 2015, losing to A.Radwanska. Keys’ best Grand Slam result across all tournaments was finishing as the runner-up at the 2017 US Open.

To reach the fourth round this year, Keys has defeated Martina Trevisan, Yafan Wang, and Marta Kostyuk. She is aiming to advance to her 11th career Grand Slam quarterfinal by defeating Jasmine Paolini today. Keys has a 10-8 record in Grand Slam Round of 16 matches, with her last quarterfinal appearance at the 2023 US Open.

Similar to Paolini, Keys has an impressive record of 28 wins over Top 10 players. Her most recent victories include No. 3 Coco Gauff and No. 8 Ons Jabeur at the 2024 Madrid tournament. Keys has a 9-4 career record against players from Italy, and in 2024, she stands at 1-0 after defeating Martina Trevisan in the opening round at Wimbledon.

Keys has won three career titles on grass, including Eastbourne in 2014 and 2023, and Birmingham in 2016. She is one of three players from the United States in the top half of the draw who have reached the Round of 16. The last American to win the Wimbledon title was Serena Williams in 2016.

Currently, Keys is ranked No. 13, while Paolini is ranked No. 7. At this time last year, Keys was ranked No. 18. Keys’ grass season has seen her reach the semifinals at Eastbourne, where she lost to Fernandez.}

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Paolini will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Jasmine Paolini vs Madison Keys prediction.