Prediction Of Musetti Vs Minaur H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Rolex Monte-carlo Masters 2025?

What Time Will Lorenzo Musetti Play Against Alex de Minaur?

Musetti and Minaur are on the Day 7 Schedule at Rolex Monte-carlo Masters 2025 on Saturday 12 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

The head-to-head series between Lorenzo Musetti from Italy and Alex de Minaur from Australia is currently tied at 1-1. Their previous matches took place at the 2022 Australian Open and the 2024 London/Queen’s Club tournament. In the Australian Open, de Minaur emerged victorious with a comeback win of 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3. However, Musetti got his revenge at the London/Queen’s Club tournament, defeating de Minaur with a score of 1-6, 6-4, 6-2.

Lorenzo Musetti, who is 23 years old, holds a ranking of World No. 16 and has reached a career-high of No. 15. In 2025, he has a win-loss record of 11-4, with his best performance being a semifinal appearance at the Monte-Carlo tournament. Overall, he has a strong record of 10-4 in events this year.

Musetti broke into the Top 20 in January 2023 and achieved his career-high ranking in June 2023. Other notable achievements include his victory in the 2022 Hamburg final against Alcaraz at the age of 20, making him the youngest player to reach an ATP Tour final since 2005. He did not drop a set en route to his second title at the 2022 Naples tournament.

At the 2024 Paris Olympics, Musetti upset Zverev, who had won the gold medal, and earned a bronze medal for Team Italy. This was the first Olympic singles medal for Italian tennis since 1924. In the same year, Musetti had his best season, with a personal-best 40 wins. He excelled on grass courts, reaching his first Grand Slam semifinal at Wimbledon and making it to the finals in Stuttgart and London/Queen’s Club.

One of the highlights of Musetti’s career came at the 2023 Monte-Carlo tournament when he secured his first 6-0, 6-0 victory at the ATP Masters 1000 level since 2016. He defeated Nardi in the second round and went on to upset the world No. 1, Djokovic, in the third round, marking the biggest win of his career and reaching his second ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal.

In his junior career, Musetti reached the final of the 2018 US Open boys’ singles and won the 2019 Australian Open boys’ singles title. He also achieved a significant victory over Wawrinka at the 2020 Rome tournament, becoming the first player born in 2002 to win an ATP Tour match.

Currently, Musetti is competing in his first ATP Masters 1000 semifinal after ousting defending champion Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. If he advances, it would be his sixth ATP Tour final and the third on clay, following his appearances in the 2022 Hamburg and 2024 Umag tournaments. With his recent success, Musetti climbed to No. 13 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings and could reach No. 11 with a semifinal win. He has a record of 9-25 against top 10 players and aims to achieve multiple top 10 wins in a single event for the first time in his career.

Musetti has previously recorded four wins over top 10 players at the ATP Masters 1000 or Grand Slam level. These victories include defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime (No. 9) at the 2022 Monte-Carlo tournament, Casper Ruud (No. 4) at the 2022 Paris tournament, Novak Djokovic (No. 1) at the 2023 Monte-Carlo tournament, and Stefanos Tsitsipas (No. 8) at the 2025 Monte-Carlo tournament.

Turning our attention to Alex de Minaur, he is 26 years old and currently holds a ranking of World No. 10, having achieved a career-high of No. 6 in July 2024. In the 2025 season, he has a win-loss record of 20-6, with his best result being a runner-up finish at the Rotterdam tournament. Throughout his career, de Minaur has captured nine ATP Tour titles, with his biggest wins coming at the Acapulco tournament in both 2023 and 2024.

De Minaur had a breakthrough performance at the 2020 US Open, where he reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal immediately after winning his first ATP Tour doubles title at the 2020 Cincinnati Masters with Carreno Busta. He has gone on to reach Grand Slam quarterfinals at the 2024 Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open, as well as his first ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal, semifinal, and final at the 2023 Toronto tournament.

In Davis Cup play, de Minaur excelled, helping Australia reach its first final since 2003 during the 2022 season. He defeated Nadal, who was ranked No. 2 at the time, in 2023, and Djokovic, who was ranked No. 1, in 2024 at the United Cup.

De Minaur’s diverse background includes having a Uruguayan father and a Spanish mother. He splits his time between Australia and Spain and is fluent in English, Spanish, and French.

In the current season, de Minaur leads the ATP Tour in wins, having recorded 20 victories. He is aiming to reach his second ATP Masters 1000 final after his appearance at the 2023 Toronto tournament. On clay courts, he has a record of 5-13 against top 20 players, including wins over Medvedev and Dimitrov this week.

If de Minaur reaches the final in Monte-Carlo, he would join Newcombe as the only Australian finalists in the Open Era. Although he has struggled in ATP Tour semifinals on clay in the past, losing to Alcaraz and Molcan, de Minaur remains determined to break the pattern.

In terms of potential singles finals, de Minaur has defeated notable players on his path to the Monte-Carlo final. After receiving a first-round bye, he defeated Machac (No. 21), Medvedev (No. 11), and Dimitrov (No. 18). Defeating the top 22 players en route to a final has been a rare achievement since 2000, with only a few players accomplishing it.

Overall, both Musetti and de Minaur have demonstrated their skills and abilities throughout their careers. As they face each other in the Monte-Carlo semifinals, it remains to be seen who will come out on top and have the opportunity to compete in the singles final.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Musetti will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur prediction.