Prediction Of Musetti Vs Arnaldi H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Australian Open 2025?

What Time Will Lorenzo Musetti Play Against Matteo Arnaldi?

Musetti and Arnaldi are on the Day 3 Schedule at Australian Open 2025 on Tuesday 14 January. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

NO. 16 LORENZO MUSETTI (ITA) vs MATTEO ARNALDI (ITA)

Lorenzo Musetti leads the head-to-head against Matteo Arnaldi 2-0 at the tour level. They have faced each other three times before, all on clay, with Musetti winning all three encounters.

Both Musetti and Arnaldi are among the 10 Italian players in the men’s singles main draw at the Australian Open, making it the fourth-highest representation by a nation after Australia, USA, and France.

This is the second all-Italian men’s singles match at the Australian Open in the Open Era, following Fabio Fognini’s victory over Salvatore Caruso in the second round in 2021. In the Open Era, there have been 24 all-Italian men’s singles matches at Grand Slam tournaments.

Musetti has won both of his previous matches against fellow Italian players at Grand Slam tournaments, defeating Marco Cecchinato in the third round at the 2021 Roland Garros and Luciano Darderi in the second round at the 2024 Wimbledon. Overall, Musetti has an 11-3 win-loss record against fellow Italian players at the tour level.

On the other hand, Arnaldi is facing a fellow Italian player at a Grand Slam for the first time. He has a 1-2 win-loss record against fellow Italian players at the tour level, with both of his defeats coming against Musetti. He won his only other tour-level match against an Italian player by defeating Flavio Cobolli in the second round at the 2023 Umag.

Musetti and Arnaldi are also Davis Cup teammates. They were part of the Italian team that won the Davis Cup title in 2023 and successfully

defended it in 2024, becoming the first nation since Czechia in 2012-13 to achieve this feat. Italy has received a wild card for the 2025 Davis Cup Final 8 Knockout Stage.

In terms of their careers, Musetti, 22 years old, holds a higher ranking of No. 15, whereas Arnaldi, 23 years old, is currently ranked No. 39. Musetti has won two titles, while Arnaldi is yet to win a title at the tour level.

Musetti has a better career Grand Slam record, with 21-15, compared to Arnaldi’s 10-7. However, both players have a 1-1 record at the Australian Open this year. Musetti has a slight edge in their five-set record, with a 5-6 win-loss record compared to Arnaldi’s 1-1. Neither player has come back from a 0-2 set down to win a match.

Overall, Musetti has a better career record of 133-112, whereas Arnaldi has a record of 49-45. On hard courts, Musetti stands at 57-64, while Arnaldi has a record of 29-26. In 2025, both players have a balanced win-loss record of 1-1, with both their wins coming on hard courts.

Musetti has reached the second round at the Australian Open once before, and this is his 16th Grand Slam appearance. His best result at a Grand Slam came at Wimbledon last year when he reached the semifinals. Arnaldi aims to reach the second round for the second consecutive year at the Australian Open, appearing in his eighth Grand Slam overall. His best Grand Slam results include reaching the round of 16 at the US Open in 2023 and Roland Garros in 2024.

Musetti is coached by Simone Tartarini, while Arnaldi is coached by Alessandro Petrone.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Musetti will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Lorenzo Musetti vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction.