Prediction Of Musetti Vs Alcaraz H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Rolex Monte-carlo Masters 2025?

What Time Will Lorenzo Musetti Play Against Carlos Alcaraz?

Musetti and Alcaraz are on the Day 8 Schedule at Rolex Monte-carlo Masters 2025 on Sunday 13 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Lorenzo Musetti, a 23-year-old Italian tennis player, will be facing off against 21-year-old Carlos Alcaraz from Spain in the singles final. The head-to-head record between the two players currently stands at 3-1 in favor of Alcaraz. Alcaraz has won their previous meetings at the Hamburg and Roland Garros tournaments, as well as in Beijing and the ATP Masters 1000 Miami.

Lorenzo Musetti’s career highlights include breaking into the top 20 rankings in January 2023 and achieving a career-high ranking of 15 in June 2023. He won the Hamburg final in 2022, defeating Alcaraz and becoming the youngest ATP Tour finalist since 2005. Musetti also secured two titles in 2022, one in Hamburg and the other in Naples, without losing a single set. In the 2024 Paris Olympics, Musetti won the bronze medal, becoming the first Italian singles player since 1924 to earn an Olympic medal in tennis. He had an impressive performance in 2024, earning a personal best of 40 wins, including reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon and the finals at Stuttgart and the London/Queen’s Club. In the 2023 Monte-Carlo tournament, Musetti achieved a significant victory by defeating world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the third round, marking one of the biggest wins of his career and reaching the quarterfinals. He also reached the finals of the US Open boys’ singles in 2018 and won the Australian Open boys’ singles title in 2019. Musetti became the first player born in 2002 to win an ATP Tour match by defeating Wawrinka at the Rome tournament in 2020.

Musetti recently ousted defending champion Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals and is now playing in his first ATP Masters 1000 final. He aims to capture his third ATP Tour title and the biggest one yet. He currently holds the No. 11 spot on the PIF ATP Live Rankings, achieving a career-high ranking on Monday. Musetti has a record of 2-12 against top-3 players, with notable wins over Djokovic in the 2023 Monte-Carlo tournament and Zverev in the Vienna quarterfinals last October. He has a 5-15 record against top 10 players in ATP Masters 1000 or Grand Slam events, with wins over Auger-Aliassime, Casper Ruud, Tsitsipas, and de Minaur.

Carlos Alcaraz, a 21-year-old Spanish player, has made a remarkable rise in the ATP rankings. He became the youngest and first teenage world No. 1 and year-end No. 1 in PIF ATP Rankings history. At the age of 19 in September 2022, Alcaraz achieved the No. 1 ranking, starting from No. 32 at the end of 2021. He held the top spot for a total of 36 weeks. Alcaraz became the youngest men’s champion at the US Open since Sampras in 1990 when he defeated Ruud in the 2022 final, securing the No. 1 ranking. He also became the youngest man to win a Grand Slam title on all three surfaces by winning the 2024 Roland Garros, defeating Sinner in the semifinals and Zverev in the final. Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in the finals of the 2023 and 2024 Wimbledon tournaments, becoming the second man in the Open Era to win his first four Grand Slam finals. He also earned a silver medal at the Paris Olympics, where he became the youngest men’s finalist since 1904. Alcaraz holds the record for being the youngest ATP 500 champion at the 2022 Rio de Janeiro tournament and the third-youngest ATP Masters 1000 champion at the 2022 Miami tournament.

Alcaraz has an impressive record against Italian players, with a 17-2 record since the 2022 US Open. His only losses to Italians came against Sinner in the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Miami semifinals and the 2023 Beijing semifinals. Alcaraz is currently 16-1 on clay since May, with his notable achievements being winning his first Roland Garros title and earning a silver medal at the Paris Olympics where he lost to Djokovic. He is currently ranked No. 3 in the world and is looking to secure his 18th tour-level title. Alcaraz has a winning record in ATP Masters 1000 finals, with victories over Ruud, Zverev, Medvedev, and Struff. He lost to Djokovic in the 2023 Cincinnati final.

In terms of their recent performance in the 2025 Monte-Carlo tournament, Musetti and Alcaraz have had different statistics. Musetti hit more aces and winners compared to Alcaraz. However, Musetti also had more unforced errors. Both players had a high percentage of points won on their first serves, but Alcaraz had a slightly higher percentage. Alcaraz also had the advantage in terms of service games won and break points saved. However, Musetti had a higher percentage of first-serve return points won.

Overall, both players have had impressive careers and are highly skilled. Musetti will be aiming to capture his third ATP Tour title, while Alcaraz is eyeing his 18th tour-level title. The head-to-head record and recent statistics indicate a competitive match between these two talented players.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Musetti will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction.