Prediction Of Baez Vs Carabelli H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Rio Open Presented By Claro 2025?

What Time Will Sebastian Baez Play Against Camilo Ugo Carabelli?

Baez and Carabelli are on the Day 6 Schedule at Rio Open Presented By Claro 2025 on Saturday 22 February 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli, both from Argentina, will face each other in the Rio de Janeiro semifinals. Baez currently leads their head-to-head record 1-0.

Their previous meetings include a match in Buenos Aires, where Baez defeated Carabelli 6-4 6-4 in the Round of 32. They also faced each other in the 16 Argentina F8 tournament, with Carabelli winning 6-3 6-1 in the Round of 32. In the 16 Argentina F9 qualifying round, Carabelli defeated Baez 6-4 6-2. Lastly, in the 16 Argentina F12 tournament, Baez came out on top with a 3-6 6-3 6-3 victory in the Round of 32.

Baez, who is 24 years old and ranked World No. 31, has had a successful career. In 2024, he broke into the Top 20 rankings after winning consecutive ATP Tour titles in Rio de Janeiro and Santiago. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 18 in June. In the 2023 season, Baez went on a 12-match winning streak, winning titles in Kitzbuhel and Winston-Salem, and reaching the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time at the US Open. He won his first ATP Tour title in 2022 at Estoril and his second title on home soil at Cordoba in 2023. Baez climbed into the Top 300, 200, and 100 rankings in 2021, with a 6-3 record in Challenger finals and the second-most titles in a season. He was also the World No. 1 junior in 2018, reaching the finals of the Roland Garros boys’ singles and winning the boys’ doubles gold medal at the Youth Olympics. Baez aims to continue his success in Rio and reach his second final at the tournament.

On the other hand, Carabelli is 25 years old and ranked World No. 91. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 87 in February 2025 after winning his eighth Challenger title in Rosario. His notable achievements include not dropping a set to qualify for the 2022 Roland Garros and winning a fifth-set tiebreak against No. 41 Karatsev in his tour-level debut. In 2024, Carabelli won ATP Tour matches in Buenos Aires and Umag and led the Challenger tour with the most match wins. He has a 160-87 record in Challenger, with eight titles to his name. Carabelli also had success in the ITF Junior Circuit, reaching No. 70 and winning multiple singles and doubles titles. In the Rio de Janeiro tournament, Carabelli beat fellow lucky loser Faria in the quarterfinals, becoming the second lucky loser to reach the semifinals in Rio. He looks to achieve the biggest win of his career and has a 2-5 record against top 50 opponents. Carabelli has climbed 22 spots to No. 69 on the PIF ATP Live Rankings and has the opportunity to rise to No. 59 with a semifinal win.

It is worth noting that Baez is the defending champion in Rio, currently on an 8-match winning streak at the tournament. He aims to reach multiple finals at a single event for the second time in his career, following his achievement in Santiago in 2022 and 2024. Baez seeks his ninth ATP Tour final, his fifth in South America, and his second at the ATP 500 level after his victory in Rio last year. If successful, he will become the third man to reach multiple Rio finals. However, no player has won the Rio title twice.

The Rio de Janeiro tournament has seen lucky losers reach the semifinals before, with players such as Marcel Granollers and Borna Coric achieving this feat in the past. Carabelli is the latest lucky loser to reach the Rio semifinals, following Balazs in 2020. He hopes to continue his impressive run and secure the biggest win of his career against Baez.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Baez will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction.