Prediction Of Arnaldi Vs Nakashima H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Matteo Arnaldi Play Against Brandon Nakashima?

Arnaldi and Nakashima are on the Day 6 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Monday 10 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Matteo Arnaldi (ITA) and [32] Brandon Nakashima (USA) are tied in their head-to-head series at 1-1. The first match took place at the 22 Next Gen ATP Finals in Italy, where Nakashima won 2-4, 4-3(7), 4-3(4), 3-4(4), 4-2 on a hard court. In their second encounter at the 25 Delray Beach tournament in the U.S., Arnaldi came out on top with a score of 7-6(2), 6-4 on a hard court.

Arnaldi is 24 years old and currently ranked 35th in the world. He achieved his career-high ranking of 30th in August 2024 after reaching the semifinals at the ATP Masters 1000 event in Montreal. He made his breakthrough in the tennis rankings by breaking into the top 500 in September 2021, the top 200 in August 2022, and the top 100 in May 2023. In 2025, he has a record of 7-5, including a semifinal appearance at the Delray Beach tournament and a 3-1 record at Indian Wells.

Throughout his career, Arnaldi has achieved several notable milestones. He reached his first ATP Tour quarterfinal and semifinal at the 2023 Umag tournament and made his first appearance in the fourth round of a Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open. He also qualified for the third round at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 event in Madrid, where he scored a significant victory over World No. 4 Casper Ruud. Another noteworthy achievement was earning his first ATP Tour win in Barcelona, defeating Jaume Munar. In the Challenger circuit, Arnaldi has a record of 59-39, with a highlight being his first title on home soil in Francavilla al Mare. In the juniors, he reached a career-high ranking of 22nd, with singles record of 80-42 and doubles record of 34-35, including winning three singles titles and two doubles titles.

It is worth mentioning that Arnaldi has four wins against top 10 players during his career, with his most recent victory over World No. 8 Andrey Rublev in the second round. He is now aiming to reach the round of 16 at the ATP Masters 1000 event for the third time, following his previous appearances in Miami and Montreal last year, where he was defeated by Machac and Rublev, respectively. In 2025, he holds a 4-1 record against American opponents, including a win over Nakashima that helped him reach his first ATP Tour semifinal of the year in Delray Beach.

Nakashima, on the other hand, is 23 years old and currently ranked 33rd in the world, which is his career-high ranking achieved in March 2025 after reaching the semifinals at the Acapulco tournament. In 2022, he won the Next Gen ATP Finals title in Milan and also secured his first ATP Tour title in his hometown of San Diego, defeating Marcos Giron. He finished the season on a strong note, winning 16 out of 17 tiebreaks.

As a 19-year-old in 2021, Nakashima made back-to-back finals appearances at the ATP Tour events in Los Cabos and Atlanta, becoming the youngest American player to achieve this feat since Andy Roddick in 2001-2002. In 2022, he reached the third round at Roland Garros, the fourth round at Wimbledon, and the third round at the US Open. Notable victories during that year include wins over World No. 16 Denis Shapovalov and No. 19 Grigor Dimitrov.

In the current season, Nakashima has a record of 7-6, including a semifinal appearance at Acapulco, where he had a win over the retiring No. 13 Holger Rune in the second round. He has reached the round of 16 at ATP Masters 1000 events twice before, in Montreal and Cincinnati last August, where he was eliminated by Rublev on both occasions. This year, Nakashima holds a 1-3 record against players ranked in the top 50. A victory in the third round would elevate his ranking to No. 32 on the PIF ATP Live Rankings.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Arnaldi will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima prediction.