Prediction Of Arnaldi Vs Korda H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell 2025?

What Time Will Matteo Arnaldi Play Against Sebastian Korda?

Arnaldi and Korda are on the Day 1 Schedule at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell 2025 on Monday 14 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Matteo Arnaldi from Italy and Sebastian Korda from the United States will be facing each other for the first time. Let’s take a look at their performance based on their 52-week averages.

In terms of attacking, Arnaldi has a conversion rate of 23% compared to Korda’s 26%. However, Korda has a slightly higher score steal rate of 68% compared to Arnaldi’s 67%.

When it comes to serve quality, Korda has the edge with a score of 8.1 compared to Arnaldi’s 7.6. However, Arnaldi has a higher return quality score of 7.3, while Korda has 7.7. In terms of forehand and backhand quality, Korda has a slight advantage with scores of 7.1, while Arnaldi has scores of 7.0 and 6.5 respectively.

Moving on to individual backgrounds, Matteo Arnaldi, aged 24, is currently ranked 42nd in the world, with his career-high being 30th. In 2025, he has a record of 8-8, with his best performance being a semifinal appearance in Delray Beach. In Barcelona, he has a record of 4-2, with a quarterfinal appearance in 2024. Arnaldi made significant progress in his career, breaking into the top 500 in September 2021, the top 200 in August 2022, and the top 100 in May 2023. His career-high ranking of 30th was achieved in August 2024 after reaching the semifinals in an ATP Masters 1000 event in Montreal. He also had notable achievements such as reaching the quarterfinals in Umag, his first ATP Tour quarterfinal, and reaching the fourth round in the US Open in 2023, his first Grand Slam 4R appearance. Arnaldi also had a significant win against the 4th-ranked player, Casper Ruud, in the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Madrid. He also had success at the challenger level, with a record of 59-39, including his first title on home soil in Francavilla al Mare. In juniors, he reached a peak ranking of 22 and had a successful record of 80-42 in singles and 34-35 in doubles, with multiple titles in both categories. In Barcelona, Arnaldi is making his third consecutive appearance, having achieved his first ATP Tour win in 2023 and reaching his first quarterfinal above the ATP 250 level last year, after saving multiple match points to defeat the 19th-ranked player, Baez, in the second round. He is currently seeking his first clay win since defeating the 23rd-ranked player, Fils, in the first round of the Paris Olympics in July last year.

On the other hand, Sebastian Korda, also aged 24, is currently ranked 24th in the world, with a career-high ranking of 15th achieved in August 2024. He shares a historic achievement with his father, Petr Korda, as they became the only father-son duo to rank inside the top 20 in the PIF ATP Rankings history. Sebastian Korda has had notable victories in his career, including wins over the 3rd-ranked player, Medvedev, at the 2023 Shanghai Masters, and the 4th-ranked player, Zverev, at the 2024 Montreal Masters. He had a successful run at the 2021 Parma tournament, winning the title without dropping a set. He also won the Washington title in 2024, 32 years after his father won the same event, making them the first father-son duo to win the same ATP Tour event. Korda has also shown promise in Grand Slam tournaments, reaching the fourth round in the 2020 Roland Garros and the 2021 Wimbledon, becoming the third player in the Open Era to achieve this feat in their debut at both events, following in the footsteps of Borg and Pernfors. In his junior career, Korda became the World No. 1 by winning the boys’ singles title at the 2018 Australian Open, 20 years after his father won the men’s singles title there. Korda comes from a family with a strong sporting background, as his father reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 on the ATP Tour, his mother peaked at No. 26 in the WTA, and his sisters have also had success in golf, with Nelly becoming the World No. 1 women’s golfer in 2021 and Jessica reaching No. 8 in the rankings.

In terms of their match in Barcelona, it is worth noting that Korda is looking for his first Top 50 win on clay since defeating the 29th-ranked player, Davidovich Fokina, in the ATP Masters 1000 Monte Carlo first round in April last year. He has struggled on clay recently, losing all five matches since then. Additionally, Korda is one of five American players in the main draw, as they aim to become the second American champion at the event in the Open Era, following Todd Martin’s victory in 1998.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Arnaldi will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Matteo Arnaldi vs Sebastian Korda, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Matteo Arnaldi vs Sebastian Korda prediction.