Fabio Fognini vs Colton Smith Prediction – ATP Indian Wells – 3rd March 2025 Best Bets

Fabio Fognini and Colton Smith Prediction Head To Head Summary

Fognini vs Smith Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Fognini has a 54.59% win this match.

Fognini → 1.92. Smith → 1.82.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Fognini vs Smith Upcoming Match Details:

Fognini will play Smith on Hard court in the Q1 round at the ATP BNP Paribas Open event in Indian Wells Men’s Singles 2025 on 3rd March 2025.

Head-to-Head: Fognini 0-0 Smith

The current Head to Head score is 0-0. Fognini comes into this match with a ranking of 95 , while Smith is ranked 261.

Fognini vs Smith Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Smith has won 50% of points on his second serve, while Fognini has won 45% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Smith has won 27% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Fognini has won 24%. The same stats for second serve return points are 43% and 47% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Smith has been saving 57% of his breakpoints, and Fognini has saved 57% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Smith performs best on I.hard, winning 75% (W/L 18/6) and worse career win % on Hard, winning 72% (W/L 26/10). Fognini performs best on Clay, winning 63% (W/L 467/276), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 42% (W/L 45/62).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Colton Smith has converted 28% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Fabio Fognini has converted 42% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Fabio Fognini played Benjamin Bonzi in the Q1 round at the Adelaide International – Adelaide and lost 3-2 ret. in 00:27:53 . Colton Smith played Kamil Majchrzak in the First round at the San Diego Challenger and lost 7-6(3) 6-4 in 01:33:00.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Fabio Fognini and Colton Smith

Of their last 10 matches played, Fognini has won 7, while Smith has won 7. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard . In recent matches, Fognini has won 45% of his own 2nd serve points and 40% of return points , while Smith has won 53% of his own 2nd serve points and 44% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Fognini Vs Smith

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Fognini has won 26 titles in his career, while Colton Smith has won 2 events. Fognini has won 50% (75722 of 151905) of points played in his entire career, and Smith has achieved 53% (3899 of 7364). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Fognini has won 56% of tie breaks in his entire career (227 of 407), whereas Colton Smith has won 36% (8 of 22). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Fabio Fognini has an 54.59% probability of winning this match.

Fabio Fognini vs Colton Smith Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Fabio Fognini To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Fabio Fognini has a 54.59% chance of winning and Colton Smith has a 45.41% chance of taking the victory. We tip Fognini to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

Value Bets For Fabio Fognini vs Colton Smith

A value bet in tennis is identified when the odds offered by bookmakers provide a return higher than the actual probability of the event happening. This type of bet suggests that the bettor has a tip edge over the sportsbook. To calculate a value bet, one multiplies the decimal odds by their estimated probability of the outcome and subtracts 1. If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered to have value. This strategy requires thorough research and understanding of various factors such as player performance, head-to-head statistics, surface preference, and current form. Finding value bets is a key strategy for achieving long-term success in tennis betting, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and continuous learning in the betting process. Anyone joining our tennis betting predictions club gets all values calculated automatically to ensure the most accurate picks and tips.

To see all live tennis scores for the BNP Paribas Open – Indian Wells, go here.