Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction – ATP Santiago – 2nd March 2025 Best Bets

Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction Head To Head Summary

Baez vs Carabelli Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Baez has a 63.41% win this match.

Baez → 1.51. Carabelli → 2.7.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Baez vs Carabelli Upcoming Match Details:

Baez will play Carabelli on Clay court in the Semifinals at the ATP Movistar Chile Open event in Santiago Men’s Singles 2025 on 2nd March 2025.

Head-to-Head: Baez 5-2 Carabelli

The current Head to Head score is 5-2. Baez comes into this match with a ranking of 31 , while Carabelli is ranked 69.

Baez vs Carabelli Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Carabelli has won 42% of points on his second serve, while Baez has won 43% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Carabelli has won 30% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Baez has won 31%. The same stats for second serve return points are 49% and 44% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Carabelli has been saving 53% of his breakpoints, and Baez has saved 53% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Carabelli performs best on Clay, winning 65% (W/L 328/174) and worse career win % on Grass, winning 0% (W/L 0/2). Baez performs best on Clay, winning 71% (W/L 223/91), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 6% (W/L 1/17).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli has converted 35% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Sebastian Baez has converted 34% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Sebastian Baez played Damir Dzumhur in the Quarterfinals at the Movistar Chile Open – Santiago and won 6-4 6-4 in 01:36:17 . Camilo Ugo Carabelli played Federico Coria in the Quarterfinals at the Movistar Chile Open – Santiago and won 6-4 6-3 in 01:29:17.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Of their last 10 matches played, Baez has won 8, while Carabelli has won 7. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Clay . In recent matches, Baez has won 53% of his own 2nd serve points and 42% of return points , while Carabelli has won 48% of his own 2nd serve points and 44% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Baez Vs Carabelli

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Baez has won 18 titles in his career, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 12 events. Baez has won 52% (30096 of 58372) of points played in his entire career, and Carabelli has achieved 51% (37926 of 73643). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Baez has won 50% of tie breaks in his entire career (61 of 123), whereas Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 56% (79 of 141). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Sebastian Baez has an 63.41% probability of winning this match.

Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Sebastian Baez To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Sebastian Baez has a 63.41% chance of winning and Camilo Ugo Carabelli has a 36.59% chance of taking the victory. We tip Baez to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

Value Bets For Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

A value bet in tennis is identified when the odds offered by bookmakers provide a return higher than the actual probability of the event happening. This type of bet suggests that the bettor has a tip edge over the sportsbook. To calculate a value bet, one multiplies the decimal odds by their estimated probability of the outcome and subtracts 1. If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered to have value. This strategy requires thorough research and understanding of various factors such as player performance, head-to-head statistics, surface preference, and current form. Finding value bets is a key strategy for achieving long-term success in tennis betting, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and continuous learning in the betting process. Anyone joining our tennis betting predictions club gets all values calculated automatically to ensure the most accurate picks and tips.

To see all live tennis scores for the Movistar Chile Open – Santiago, go here.

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Sebastian Baez

• Djere vs Baez H2H (0-2) , could play in The Final
• Cerundolo vs Baez H2H (2-3) , could play in The Final

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Camilo Ugo Carabelli

• Djere vs Carabelli H2H (0-0) , could play in The Final
• Cerundolo vs Carabelli H2H (4-1) , could play in The Final