Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction – ATP Indian Wells – 10th March 2025 Best Bets

Matteo Arnaldi and Brandon Nakashima Prediction Head To Head Summary

Arnaldi vs Nakashima Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Nakashima has a 52.73% win this match.

Arnaldi → 1.97. Nakashima → 1.84.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Arnaldi vs Nakashima Upcoming Match Details:

Arnaldi will play Nakashima on Hard court in the Third round at the ATP BNP Paribas Open event in Indian Wells Men’s Singles 2025 on 10th March 2025.

Head-to-Head: Arnaldi 1-0 Nakashima

The current Head to Head score is 1-0. Arnaldi comes into this match with a ranking of 35 , while Nakashima is ranked 33.

Arnaldi vs Nakashima Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Nakashima has won 50% of points on his second serve, while Arnaldi has won 50% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Nakashima has won 21% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Arnaldi has won 27%. The same stats for second serve return points are 38% and 43% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Nakashima has been saving 64% of his breakpoints, and Arnaldi has saved 57% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Nakashima performs best on I.hard, winning 69% (W/L 58/26) and worse career win % on Clay, winning 52% (W/L 29/27). Arnaldi performs best on Clay, winning 66% (W/L 125/64), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 41% (W/L 15/22).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Brandon Nakashima has converted 30% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Matteo Arnaldi has converted 28% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Matteo Arnaldi played Andrey Rublev in the Second round at the BNP Paribas Open – Indian Wells and won 6-4 7-5 in 01:47:39 . Brandon Nakashima played Rinky Hijikata in the Second round at the BNP Paribas Open – Indian Wells and won 7-5 6-1 in 01:32:22.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Matteo Arnaldi and Brandon Nakashima

Of their last 10 matches played, Arnaldi has won 6, while Nakashima has won 6. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard . In recent matches, Arnaldi has won 49% of his own 2nd serve points and 37% of return points , while Nakashima has won 56% of his own 2nd serve points and 35% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Arnaldi Vs Nakashima

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Arnaldi has won 6 titles in his career, while Brandon Nakashima has won 7 events. Arnaldi has won 51% (24651 of 48619) of points played in his entire career, and Nakashima has achieved 52% (28501 of 55066). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Arnaldi has won 59% of tie breaks in his entire career (64 of 108), whereas Brandon Nakashima has won 55% (109 of 197). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Brandon Nakashima has an 52.73% probability of winning this match.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Brandon Nakashima To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Matteo Arnaldi has a 47.27% chance of winning and Brandon Nakashima has a 52.73% chance of taking the victory. We tip Nakashima to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

Value Bets For Matteo Arnaldi vs Brandon Nakashima

A value bet in tennis is identified when the odds offered by bookmakers provide a return higher than the actual probability of the event happening. This type of bet suggests that the bettor has a tip edge over the sportsbook. To calculate a value bet, one multiplies the decimal odds by their estimated probability of the outcome and subtracts 1. If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered to have value. This strategy requires thorough research and understanding of various factors such as player performance, head-to-head statistics, surface preference, and current form. Finding value bets is a key strategy for achieving long-term success in tennis betting, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and continuous learning in the betting process. Anyone joining our tennis betting predictions club gets all values calculated automatically to ensure the most accurate picks and tips.

To see all live tennis scores for the BNP Paribas Open – Indian Wells, go here.

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Matteo Arnaldi

• Arnaldi vs Fritz H2H (1-0) , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Tabilo H2H (0-0) , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Brooksby H2H (0-0) , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Draper H2H (0-0) , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Shelton H2H (0-1) , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Arnaldi vs Khachanov H2H (1-0) , could play in The Quarterfinals

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Brandon Nakashima

• Nakashima vs Fritz H2H (1-2) , could play in The Semifinals
• Nakashima vs Tabilo H2H (1-1) , could play in The Semifinals
• Nakashima vs Brooksby H2H (0-1) , could play in The Semifinals
• Nakashima vs Draper H2H (0-2) , could play in The Semifinals
• Nakashima vs Shelton H2H (0-3) , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Nakashima vs Khachanov H2H (0-1) , could play in The Quarterfinals