Reilly Opelka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: Over the last six months, Reilly Opelka has a slight edge, winning 47.91% of points on his second serve compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's 46.13%. Could this give Opelka an advantage? Possibly, but marginally so.
• Return Game Stats: Davidovich Fokina significantly outperforms Opelka in return stats, winning 44.22% of the opponent's second serve points, compared to Opelka's 36.86%. Additionally, in returning first serves, Davidovich Fokina leads with 24.79% versus Opelka's 18.31%. These stats suggest Davidovich Fokina could be the preferred choice in rallies.
• Under Pressure: While Opelka has saved 67.11% of breakpoints, outperforming Davidovich Fokina's 55.43%, both players demonstrate solid performance under pressure. Will Opelka's breakpoint resilience be a decisive factor?
• Performance Overview: Davidovich Fokina has a higher win rate over the last year at 62.86% compared to Opelka's 54.10%, indicating a generally more successful recent performance.
• Best Surface: Both players thrive on Hard courts with similar career win percentages (Davidovich Fokina at 61% and Opelka at 61% on I.hard), pointing to potentially even footing regarding surface suitability.
• Player Level: On the Main tour in the past year, Davidovich Fokina has been slightly more successful, boasting a 66.67% win rate compared to Opelka's 59.38%. Does this suggest a higher level of current competition success for Davidovich Fokina?
• Direct H2H Matches: In their only prior encounter, Davidovich Fokina triumphed, winning both sets (7-5, 7-5). This could indicate a psychological and historical edge for Davidovich Fokina.
• Opponent Quality: Davidovich Fokina has faced stronger competition, with an average opponent rank of 57.79 versus Opelka's 94.61. This experience against tougher opponents might give Davidovich Fokina an advantage.
• Deciding Set Performance: In matches that go to a deciding set, Opelka has a slightly better win percentage at 63% compared to Davidovich Fokina's 60%, which could be crucial if the match goes the distance.

Editorial Prediction (December 22, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Reilly Opelka is set to be an engaging contest. Statistically, Davidovich Fokina shows stronger performance in return games, likely giving him an edge in rallies and point construction.

While Opelka has shown proficiency in saving breakpoints and has a slightly better deciding set performance, Davidovich Fokina's superior recent overall win rate and history against tougher opposition could suggest greater resilience and adaptability.

Considering the head-to-head record where Davidovich Fokina previously claimed victory strongly weighs in his favor, the expected surface does not notably differentiate the players, maintaining generally balanced prospects.

Based on the factual data and comparisons analyzed, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the likely favorite to win the upcoming match.