Prediction of Pedro Vives Marcos vs Ivan Gakhov at M25 Zaragoza 10-04-25

• In recent months, Ivan Gakhov has an edge in second serve performance, winning 45.27% of these points compared to Pedro Vives Marcos' 43.47%. Could this statistic influence the match outcome? Yes, it is highly correlated with match predictions.
• Ivan Gakhov slightly surpasses Pedro Vives Marcos in return game statistics, with a higher percentage of opponent's second serve points won (48.14% vs. 47.77%). They also have better first serve return numbers (26.10% vs. 25.58%).
• Under pressure, Ivan Gakhov demonstrates stronger breakpoint saving capability, at 56.36% compared to Pedro Vives Marcos' 50.93%. Is this crucial for match predictions? Indeed, it is a valuable in-game statistic.
• Although Pedro Vives Marcos holds a higher win percentage over the past year (77.42% vs. 60.49%), it's important to consider the level of tournaments each player has participated in.
• Both players share a strong clay surface performance, each with a 63% win rate in their careers.
• Analyzing their event level participation, Pedro Vives Marcos has a higher win percentage at the Futures/ITF level ($10K tournaments), achieving an 80.00% win rate, while Ivan Gakhov has a lower win percentage at Challengers/ITF tournaments (> $10K) at 46.81%.
• Direct H2H encounters show Pedro Vives Marcos victorious in their only previous match, held on clay, winning in straight sets.
• The average opponent's ranking faced by Ivan Gakhov in the past year is significantly higher (337.52) compared to Pedro Vives Marcos (467.26).
• Should the match extend to a deciding set, Ivan Gakhov has superior statistics, winning 58% of such sets against Pedro Vives Marcos' 50% outcome in the last year.

Editorial Prediction (October 4, 2025, UTC):

As analyzed, Ivan Gakhov's slightly better performance in second serve points and return games could provide him with a critical edge in this matchup. His ability to save breakpoints more effectively than Pedro Vives Marcos may be decisive under pressure.

Despite Pedro Vives Marcos' higher overall win percentage in the past year, the level of competition faced by Ivan Gakhov has been notably tougher. This may prepare him better for challenging matches.

Even though Pedro Vives Marcos won their previous encounter, the deciding set statistics lean in favor of Ivan Gakhov. His tendency to excel in such scenarios could be pivotal.

Given the statistical evidence, Ivan Gakhov appears to have a slight advantage and is the probable favorite to emerge victorious in this upcoming match.