Prediction of Pawit Sornlaksup vs Andrej Loncarevic at M15 Lexington 10-08-25

• Second Serve Performance: In the past six months, Andrej Loncarevic has a slight edge in winning second serve points, with a 51.39% success rate compared to Pawit Sornlaksup's 48.94%. How significant is this gap in predicting match outcomes? Quite significant.
• Return Game Performance: Andrej Loncarevic also outperforms on return game stats, winning 47.86% of opponents' second serve points against Pawit's 46.77%. However, for first serve returns, Pawit leads slightly at 27.45% over Andrej's 26.06%.
• Under Pressure: When it comes to saving breakpoints, there is a marginal difference, with Pawit Sornlaksup saving 47.75% and Andrej Loncarevic with 47.17%.
• Overall Match Performance: Looking over the last year, Loncarevic has a superior win rate, securing 80.00% of his matches compared to Sornlaksup's 62.50%.
• Surface Preferences: Both players perform best on different surfaces, with Pawit excelling on Hard courts at 65%, while Andrej prefers Clay courts with the same win percentage.
• Player Level: Loncarevic has been competing against stronger opponents, with an average rank of 159.93, while Sornlaksup faces players averaging 415.54 in rank.
• Deciding Set Prowess: Loncarevic has a perfect record (100%) in deciding sets in the past year, while Pawit has won 82% of such sets.
• Importance of Event-Level Play: Evaluating performance at different tournament levels can indicate the player's adaptability and consistency.
• Current Event Performance: A critical factor that can shift predictions once the event is underway, highlighting active form and momentum.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

The current stats indicate that Andrej Loncarevic may have a slight advantage going into this match. His higher winning percentages in second serve performance and return games showcase his consistent ability to capitalize on opponent weaknesses.

Loncarevic's experience against tougher opponents could also give him an edge in handling pressure situations, as reflected in his stellar record in deciding sets.

Furthermore, his overall higher match win rate in the past year speaks to his form and competitive adaptability at this level of play.

Based on these insights, Andrej Loncarevic is more likely to win the upcoming tennis match.