Prediction of Nicole Fossa Huergo vs Maja Chwalinska at Quito Open - Quito 12-02-25

• Which player currently has slightly better second serve performance? Maja Chwalinska, with a second serve points win rate of 41.49%, edges out Nicole Fossa Huergo, who has a 39.78% win rate.
• Looking at return games, Nicole Fossa Huergo captures 53.82% of second serve return points compared to Maja's 50.34%. However, Maja dominates first serve returns with 36.11%, surpassing Nicole's 31.55%.
• In high-pressure situations (breakpoint saves), Nicole Fossa Huergo and Maja Chwalinska have comparable rates, saving 41.83% and 41.43% respectively.
• Over the past year, Maja Chwalinska shows a clearer advantage in match victories with a win percentage of 62.26% (33/20) versus Nicole's 38.18% (21/34).
• On clay surfaces, both players have similar career success rates at 58%, but on their least favorable surfaces, Nicole is at 50% indoors and Maja at 54% on grass.
• At ITF events above $10K, Maja excels with a 69.44% win rate (25/11), while Nicole lags behind at 37.50% (15/25).
• Assessing opponent quality, Maja's opponents averaged a rank of 201.11, compared to Nicole's 330.45, indicating stronger competition faced by Maja.
• In deciding sets, Maja triumphs in 58% of the scenarios compared to Nicole's 35% over the past year.
• Does break point conversion influence their matchup? Slightly – Maja converts 40.94% of opportunities compared to Nicole's 38.46%.

Editorial Prediction (December 1, 2025, UTC):

Maja Chwalinska seems to have a distinct advantage drawing from historical data and recent performance trends. She demonstrates strength in both serve and return games, which could be pivotal in her upcoming match against Nicole Fossa Huergo.

The disparity in overall win percentages over the past year, especially against stronger-ranked opponents, highlights Maja's capacity to handle competitive matchups more effectively.

Given the consistent edge in first serve returns, alongside better performance under deciding set pressure, Maja Chwalinska emerges as the likely winner of the imminent clash.