Naomi Osaka vs Jelena Ostapenko Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Examining second serve efficacy, Osaka outperforms Ostapenko, achieving 45.65% to Ostapenko's 38.4% of points won in the last six months.
• On the receiving end, Ostapenko has a slight edge, winning 53.62% of opponents' second serve points, compared to Osaka's 51.59%.
• When facing first serve returns, Ostapenko again leads with 31.97%, while Osaka records 25.27%.
• Under pressure, Osaka showcases resilience, saving 50% of breakpoints, better than Ostapenko's 46.01%.
• Considering recent match outcomes, Osaka holds a superior win rate of 65.91% over the past year, compared to Ostapenko’s 50%.
• For surface preferences, Osaka thrives on Hard courts with a 67% success rate, whereas Ostapenko excels on Grass with a 68% win rate.
• Both players participate mainly in Masters series, yet Osaka has a better win rate at this level, 65% against Ostapenko's 50%.
• In direct encounters, Osaka dominates, having won both previous matches and all sets against Ostapenko.
• Deciding sets reveal Ostapenko’s edge with a 67% win rate recent-performance compared to Osaka's 60%, possibly crucial in a tight match.
• Ostapenko's opponent quality, with an average rank of 54.61, has been stronger compared to Osaka's opponents, ranked on average 79.89.
• When exploring breakpoint conversion rates, Ostapenko excels with 43.68%, significantly higher than Osaka's 31.72%.

Editorial Prediction (July 31, 2025, UTC):

In assessing the competitive outlook, Osaka emerges with several advantages rooted in past performance metrics and head-to-head encounters. Her stronger second serve performance and higher overall win rate signal a formidable record over recent months when compared to Ostapenko.

Though Ostapenko's capability to capitalize on return points and lucrative breakpoint conversion may present challenges for Osaka, especially on surfaces less favorable to her opponent, Osaka’s proven ability to withstand breakpoints under pressure provides a counterbalance.

Ostapenko's formidable performance on Grass presents an important variable, yet Osaka’s overall favorable results on Hard courts and direct matchup dominance position her as the favorite. Her historical success over Ostapenko, alongside significant statistical edges, tips the scales in Osaka's favor for this upcoming match.