Matteo Covato vs Egor Gerasimov Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: Gerasimov has a slight edge with a 47.35% success rate on second serve points, compared to Covato's 44.41% over the past six months.
• Return Game Effectiveness: Gerasimov has slightly outperformed Covato by winning 43.37% of opponents' second serve points, while Covato is at 42.54%.
• First Serve Return: Covato has a minor lead in first serve returns, winning 25.18% compared to Gerasimov's 24.68%. Could this small difference be crucial in the match?
• Breakpoints Saved: Gerasimov has the slightest advantage here as well, saving 57.06% of breakpoints against him, over Covato's 56.89%.
• Match Win Rate: Over the last year, Gerasimov has proven more consistent with a win rate of 50%, while Covato is lower at 41.82%.
• Preferred Surfaces: Gerasimov excels on indoor hard courts with a 61% career win rate, whereas Covato is better on clay, with a 48% win rate.
• Tournament Level: Covato has played in higher-level tournaments on average, winning 43.48% of his matches; Gerasimov has a lower win rate of 33.33% in the same tier.
• Opponent Quality: Covato has faced higher-ranked opponents on average, with a rank of 261.51 versus Gerasimov's 423.95. Does this suggest Covato is more battle-tested?
• Deciding Set Performance: In deciding sets, Covato holds a slight edge, having won 54% compared to Gerasimov's 53% over the past year.
• Breakpoint Conversion: A significant advantage for Gerasimov, converting 26.17% of breakpoints, outperforming Covato's 17% in recent form.

Editorial Prediction (September 7, 2025, UTC):

As we anticipate this upcoming tennis match, a detailed examination of various performance statistics provides insights into which player could have the upper hand. Gerasimov's superior second serve performance and better breakpoint conversion rate in recent form stand out as strong indicators of his potential dominance.

While Covato has faced higher-ranked opponents, giving him the experience against tougher competition, his lower conversion on breakpoints could be pivotal, especially in crucial moments of the match.

Gerasimov's consistency in winning 50% of his matches over the past year, combined with his advantage in specific performance areas, suggests that he is more likely to come out victorious in this encounter. Hence, based on the current analysis, Egor Gerasimov is favored to win this match.