Prediction of Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula at China Open - Beijing 10-01-25

• Which player excels in second serve performance recently? Jessica Pegula leads with 44.38%, surpassing Marta Kostyuk's 39.03%.
• What's the advantage in return games? Marta Kostyuk edges out with 50.69% success on second serve returns, slightly higher than Pegula's 49.73%.
• In pressure situations, who saves breakpoints more effectively? Pegula has a narrow edge with a 53.37% success rate compared to Kostyuk's 52.88%.
• Looking at match outcomes over the past year, Jessica Pegula boasts a 66.67% win rate, higher than Kostyuk's 60.42%.
• Do surface preferences affect this match-up? Kostyuk performs best on Clay with a 66% win rate, whereas Pegula favors Hard courts with a 67% success rate.
• In Masters series, who has the upper hand in matches won recently? Kostyuk leads with a 72.41% win rate, outpacing Pegula's 58.62%.
• Have they faced each other before, and what's the track record? Yes, Pegula dominates the head-to-head 3-1, including a recent win in Miami on Hard courts.
• When considering opponent strength, Pegula has faced tougher competition, with an average opponent rank of 50.91 compared to Kostyuk's 64.6.
• Who fares better in deciding sets? Kostyuk has a stronger record, winning 63% of such sets, unlike Pegula's 52%.

Editorial Prediction (September 29, 2025, UTC):

This upcoming match features two competitors with different advantages. Jessica Pegula shows superior recent performance in second serve points, suggesting an edge in maintaining service games.

Marta Kostyuk, on the other hand, has demonstrated strong capabilities in return games, potentially challenging Pegula's service strategy. Despite this, Pegula's slightly higher experience against stronger opponents and her recent success on Hard courts might give her an advantage.

Head-to-head statistics favor Pegula, who has consistently overcome Kostyuk in their previous encounters. While Kostyuk has shown resilience in deciding sets, Pegula's track record on Hard surfaces and her ability to handle pressure make her a formidable contender.

Given these factors, Jessica Pegula is the favorite to emerge victorious in this match-up.