Prediction of Marjorie Souza vs Catarina Ibiraba Melleiro at W15 Ribeirao Preto 11-26-25

• Marjorie Souza has been less effective with her second serve, winning only 31.36% of points, compared to Catarina Ibiraba Melleiro's 36.94%. Could this impact the match outcome? Yes, it might give Catarina a slight edge in rallies.
• Return game performance shows Marjorie Souza winning 49.77% of her opponent's second serve points, slightly trailing Catarina's 52.86%. This suggests Catarina might have a stronger return game currently.
• For first serve returns, Catarina again outperforms with a rate of 37.42%, against Marjorie's 32.22%. This could be critical in breaking serves.
• Under pressure, Marjorie Souza excels at saving breakpoints with a success rate of 45.00%, outperforming Catarina's 39.89%. How might this influence the match? Marjorie may have an advantage in crucial game moments.
• Over the past year, Marjorie won 52.63% of her matches, whereas Catarina has only won 33.33%. This indicates Marjorie's better overall consistency.
• Both players perform best on different surfaces, with Marjorie excelling on clay and Catarina on indoor hard courts. Surface preference could play a role depending on the tournament surface.
• In terms of tournament levels, Marjorie prevails in ITF $10K matches with a 53.33% win rate, compared to Catarina's 33.33% in the same category. Experience at available competitive levels favors Marjorie.
• Marjorie has faced tougher opponents, averaging an opponent rank of 203.05, versus Catarina's 277.81, which could mean better preparation for challenging matches.
• In deciding sets, Marjorie has won 67% of them, showcasing her resilience in critical scenarios, compared to Catarina's 40% success rate.
• Catarina has a stronger break point conversion rate at 47.41%, versus Marjorie’s 37.10%, which might help her in capitalizing on crucial opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (November 26, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Marjorie Souza and Catarina Ibiraba Melleiro presents a fascinating contrast in performances. Marjorie Souza demonstrates greater consistency in match victories and shows resilience under pressure, particularly when saving breakpoints and competing in deciding sets. These are key factors that may impact her performance positively in tight spots.

However, Catarina Ibiraba Melleiro has shown slight superiority in her serving and returning game statistics, which could give her an initial advantage in setting the game's pace. Her ability to convert breakpoints is particularly notable and could help her seize control during crucial moments.

The expected type of surface might also be influential. If the match is played on clay, Marjorie Souza’s balanced experience could be advantageous. Conversely, Catarina's strength on indoor hard surfaces may provide her with an advantage if the match occurs on a similar surface.

Considering these factors, while Marjorie has shown greater resilience and experience, Catarina’s current form in crucial stats such as second serve performance and breakpoint conversion gives her a marginal edge. Therefore, Catarina Ibiraba Melleiro is slightly favored to win this upcoming match, although it is expected to be closely contested.