Luca Nardi vs Denis Shapovalov Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• When comparing second serve points in the last six months, Nardi edges slightly with 44.16%, just above Shapovalov's 44.04%. Could this slight difference influence the match outcome?
• In recent return games, Nardi has won 43.96% of their opponent's second serve points, surpassing Shapovalov's 42.48%. Does this imply a return game advantage for Nardi?
• Looking at first serve returns, Shapovalov holds an advantage with a 28.55% win rate compared to Nardi's 24.96%.
• Under pressure, Nardi saves 54.74% of breakpoints, significantly higher than Shapovalov's 45.09%. Could this make a critical difference in tight situations?
• Over the past year, Shapovalov boasts a higher match-winning percentage at 63.64% compared to Nardi's 54.29%, suggesting Shapovalov's stronger overall performance.
• Nardi performs best on hard courts with a 60% win rate, while Shapovalov excels on indoor hard courts at 62%. Does surface play a significant role in this matchup?
• Shapovalov primarily competes on the Main tour with a recent winning percentage of 76.67%; Nardi competes mostly in Challengers/ITF events, winning 66.67%.
• The average rank of Shapovalov's opponents in the past year is nearly double that of Nardi's opponents, indicating Shapovalov faces higher-caliber competition.
• If this match reaches a deciding set, Nardi has a slight edge, winning 56% of deciding sets compared to Shapovalov's 54%.
• In the area of break point conversion, Shapovalov excels with 35.11% compared to Nardi's 25.84%, which may be pivotal in critical moments of the match.

Editorial Prediction (August 10, 2025, UTC):

In the upcoming match, both players show competitive edges in specific areas. Nardi demonstrates a slight advantage in second serve performance and breakpoint saving, which could be vital under pressure.

However, Shapovalov's overall winning rate, success on the Main tour, and experience against higher-ranked opponents indicate a potentially stronger overall performance. Additionally, his superior breakpoint conversion rate might provide decisive opportunities during the match.

While Nardi's ability to handle breakpoints and return games could challenge Shapovalov, the latter's track record against more challenging opposition and superior performance in converting critical points could be significant factors.

Based on these insights, Shapovalov is predicted to be the likely winner of this match.