Prediction of Lorenzo Giustino vs Gianluca Cadenasso at Montemar Challenger 11-22-25

• How does recent second serve performance compare? Lorenzo Giustino leads slightly with 41.64% compared to Gianluca Cadenasso's 40.59%.
• In return game stats, Giustino again has a slight edge, winning 46.10% of opponents' second serve points over Cadenasso’s 44.58%.
• Cadenasso outperforms Giustino on first serve returns, claiming 32.15% over Giustino's 26.72%.
• Under pressure, Giustino saves 52.64% of break points, whilst Cadenasso saves 47.24%.
• Giustino's match win rate over the past year stands at 65.96%, whereas Cadenasso has a slightly higher rate at 68.12%.
• Clay is Giustino's forte with a 56% career win rate, while Cadenasso performs best on Hard with the same win rate.
• Both predominantly compete in Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K, but Giustino boasts a higher win percentage of 77.97% compared to Cadenasso's 68.00%.
• Head-to-head, Giustino dominates having won both previous encounters without dropping a set.
• In deciding sets, Cadenasso excels with a win rate of 78%, bettering Giustino's 59%.
• Giustino faces tougher opponents on average (ranked 363.97) than Cadenasso (ranked 433.94).
• Cadenasso converts breakpoints more efficiently, with a conversion rate of 38.06% to Giustino's 30.34%.

Editorial Prediction (November 22, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming tennis match between Lorenzo Giustino and Gianluca Cadenasso promises to be competitive, given their recent performance statistics.

Lorenzo Giustino has a slight advantage in both second serve points and second serve return success, crucial factors for predicting match outcomes. Additionally, his history of consistently winning against Cadenasso gives him a psychological edge.

However, Gianluca Cadenasso shows strength in converting breakpoints and has an impressive record in deciding sets, signaling his potential to seize critical moments.

While Cadenasso has a better overall win percentage in the past year, Giustino consistently faces higher-ranked opponents, sharpening his competitive edge.

Based on these evaluations, Lorenzo Giustino is the likely favorite to win in this encounter, leveraging his more comprehensive strengths and past success against Gianluca Cadenasso.