Jesper De Jong vs Matteo Arnaldi Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Efficacy: Matteo Arnaldi has shown slightly superior recent form, winning 48.07% of second serve points compared to Jesper De Jong's 47.41%.
• Return Game Strategy: Jesper De Jong edges out Matteo Arnaldi in recent second serve return points, capturing 44.41% as opposed to Arnaldi's 43.74%.
• In first serve return points, Matteo Arnaldi leads with 26.05%, while Jesper De Jong manages 22.86%. Could this advantage be significant?
• Pressure Handling: Both players display notable breakpoint saving abilities, with Arnaldi at 58.62% and De Jong close behind at 58.16%.
• Match Win Rate: Over the past year, Jesper De Jong has a higher match win percentage at 53.73%, compared to Matteo Arnaldi’s 43.48%.
• Surface Specialization: Matteo Arnaldi excels on clay (65% win rate), whereas Jesper De Jong performs best on hard courts (65% win rate). How might the playing surface affect the outcome?
• Main Tour Experience: Over the last year, Jesper De Jong has won 55.17% of matches on the Main tour, surpassing Arnaldi's 43.48%.
• Head-to-Head Record: Matteo Arnaldi leads their head-to-head matches 2-1, having won five out of seven total sets played.
• Previous Encounter: Their last meeting saw Arnaldi win decisively on clay, 6-3, 6-2.
• Opponent Quality: Arnaldi has faced tougher opponents with an average rank of 60.13, compared to De Jong’s 155.43.
• Deciding Set Performance: De Jong has outperformed Arnaldi in deciding sets, with a win rate of 60% compared to Arnaldi’s 45%.

Editorial Prediction (October 18, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match appears closely contested, considering both players' statistics. Matteo Arnaldi holds a slight edge in recent second serve points and has the advantage in first serve return capabilities.

Despite Jesper De Jong’s superior win rate over the past year and proficiency in deciding sets, Matteo Arnaldi's consistent performance against tougher competition, combined with his head-to-head lead and clay court success, positions him favorably.

Given the data, Matteo Arnaldi is the more likely victor in the impending match against Jesper De Jong.