Prediction of Jan Choinski vs Frederico Ferreira Silva at Maia Challenger 11-26-25

• In recent performance trends over the past six months, Jan Choinski wins 46.54% of points on his second serve, slightly surpassing Frederico Ferreira Silva's 46.00%.
• Who performs better in return games? Frederico Ferreira Silva leads in recent stats by winning 46.65% of his opponent's second serve points, compared to Choinski's 43.17%.
• Looking at first serve returns, Silva again holds an edge with a success rate of 30.23% versus Choinski’s 27.18%, offering insight into their return strengths.
• Choinski has saved 55.18% of breakpoints recently, whereas Silva is slightly better at saving 57.25% of them, a useful stat for predicting in-game pressure handling.
• Over the past year, both players have similar match win rates with Choinski at 60.00% and Silva slightly ahead at 60.66%.
• Jan Choinski performs best on clay with a 63% career win percentage, while Silva favors hard courts with the same career win rate.
• In the last year, Choinski has had more success (63.79%) in Challengers/ITF tournaments compared to Silva's 54.17% performance rate.
• Jan Choinski has generally faced tougher competition, with opponents having an average rank of 242.52, while Silva's opponents ranked on average 317.72.
• How do they fare in deciding sets? Silva edges slightly ahead, winning 79% of deciding sets, compared to Choinski's 78% success rate.
• In terms of converting breakpoints, Silva is more efficient, seizing 36.73% compared to Choinski’s 26.14% conversion rate, a crucial factor during tight matches.

Editorial Prediction (November 26, 2025, UTC):

In evaluating both players' recent form and key statistics, Frederico Ferreira Silva holds advantages in several significant areas. His superior performance in return games and breakpoint conversion may be pivotal in closely contested moments.

Though both players are closely matched in terms of overall win rates and performance under pressure, the quality of opposition faced by Choinski could imply resilience and experience against better-ranked opponents. However, Silva's efficacy on hard courts, along with his consistency in key match-turning scenarios, grants him a slight edge.

Considering these factors, Frederico Ferreira Silva emerges as the marginal favorite to win the upcoming match.