Prediction of Jacob Fearnley vs Elias Ymer at BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm 10-16-25

• How does second serve performance compare? Elias Ymer has won 43.08% of points on his second serve in the last six months, while Jacob Fearnley slightly edges him out with 43.90%.
• In terms of second serve return games, Fearnley has a slight advantage with 48.04% over Ymer's 47.37% in recent form.
• Ymer performs better with first serve returns, winning 28.45% compared to Fearnley's 23.22%.
• Both players exhibit strong break point defense, yet Ymer excels by saving 53.11% of breakpoints, compared to Fearnley's 51.79%.
• Considering overall match performance in the past year, Fearnley has a higher win rate of 56.67% against Ymer's 50.00%.
• What surfaces favor each player? Ymer's preferred surface is clay, holding a win rate of 59%, while Fearnley excels on indoor hard courts with the same percentage.
• On the Challenger/ITF circuit, Fearnley has a superior record, winning 63.16% of matches, compared to Ymer's 50.00%.
• In terms of opponent quality, Fearnley has faced higher-ranked players, with an average opponent rank of 152.05, compared to Ymer's 280.87.
• If the match reaches a deciding set, Fearnley again has the edge with a 64% win rate, in contrast to Ymer's 56%.

Editorial Prediction (October 16, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Elias Ymer and Jacob Fearnley presents an intriguing contest, with both players showing strengths in key areas. While Ymer has a strong first serve return game and a higher rate of break point defense, Fearnley counters with superior second serve performance and a slightly better record in converting return points.

Fearnley's experience competing against higher-ranked opponents appears to give him a strategic edge. His higher match win rate in the last year and proficiency in deciding sets further boosts his chances of emerging victorious.

Considering Fearnley's better recent form and competitive pedigree, he is predicted to be the likely winner of this encounter.