Prediction of Ioannis Xilas vs Philip Henning at M25 Heraklion 11-23-25

• Second Serve Performance: Ioannis Xilas has achieved a 40.97% success rate on second serve points recently, slightly trailing behind Philip Henning's 41.34%. Is this small difference significant enough to impact match outcomes? Given the close stats, it suggests a potentially tight contest.
• Return Game: Ioannis Xilas shows a clear edge in return games, winning 50.18% of opponents' second serve points compared to Philip Henning's 44.98%. Xilas also excels with a 31.62% success rate on first serve returns over Henning's 26.37%.
• Under Pressure: The ability to save breakpoints is crucial. Xilas has saved 49.79% of breakpoints, slightly better than Henning's 48.80%, highlighting Xilas's slight advantage in high-pressure moments.
• Overall Performance: Over the past year, Henning has a higher match win rate with 76.92% compared to Xilas's 72.88%, indicating consistent higher performance.
• Best Surface: Xilas excels on clay (winning 65%), while Henning's best results are on hard courts (65% win rate). Could surface preference affect their head-to-head match on hard court?
• Player Level: Henning shows a superior win percentage (86.96%) at lower-tier Futures tournaments compared to Xilas's 78.72%, even if both compete primarily at this level, suggesting Henning might be better optimized for competitive play.
• Opponent Quality: Henning has faced slightly higher-ranked opponents (average rank 372.63) than Xilas (average rank 435.86), which may indicate his higher adaptability and skill level.
• Deciding Set Performance: If the match reaches a deciding set, Henning's 71% win rate suggests he holds an upper hand over Xilas’s 60% win rate.
• Break Point Conversion: Xilas is more effective at capitalizing on break points with a conversion rate of 37.88%, compared to Henning's 31.29%.

Editorial Prediction (November 23, 2025, UTC):

Based on recent performance trends, Ioannis Xilas possesses a stronger return game and a slightly better breakpoint conversion rate. These factors could be critical in determining the outcome of closely fought rallies.

Philip Henning's overall win rate and successful performance under high-pressure scenarios, such as deciding sets, suggest a resilience that may prevail over Xilas's strengths.

Given the match is on hard court, Henning's surface preference may provide an additional advantage, despite Xilas's superior recent performance in return games.

Considering all statistics and trends, Philip Henning appears to have a slight edge and is likely to win the upcoming tennis match.