Iga Swiatek vs Jelena Ostapenko Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

Evaluating their second serve proficiency in recent form, Iga Swiatek has claimed 40.5% of points, outperforming Jelena Ostapenko’s 36.6%. This particular statistic plays a significant role in predicting potential outcomes. Equally crucial is the ability to handle return games. Swiatek has returned 49.87% of her opponent's second serve points effectively, while Ostapenko has recorded a superior rate of 55.16%.

When narrowing the focus to first serve returns, Ostapenko also takes the lead with 31.6% compared to Swiatek's 29.6%. These figures provide a substantial basis for favoring a player in this head-to-head matchup. Furthermore, the ability to avert breakpoints is essential under pressure. Recently, Swiatek has managed to save 45.31% of breakpoints, whereas Ostapenko showcases a slightly better rate of 49.12%.

From a broader perspective, over the past 12 months, Swiatek has enjoyed a commendable 83.56% success rate in her matches, whereas Ostapenko lags behind at 51.22%. Their history against each other is stark, with Ostapenko winning all five prior encounters and dominating with a 10-2 set score. Their most recent clash at the Qatar Total Energies Open in Doha in 2025 ended with Ostapenko taking a decisive 6-3, 6-1 victory.

For those invested in live predictions, a deciding set scenario sees Swiatek with a 73% success rate, while Ostapenko holds a 56% win rate. Ostapenko maintains the upper hand in high-pressure situations, having prevailed in their sole tiebreak moment. Considering their experience, over the last year, Swiatek has faced stronger competition, with opponents averaged at a rank of 86.11 compared to Ostapenko’s faced average rank of 111.73.

The surface preference may weigh in their performances as well. Swiatek excels on clay with an impressive win percentage of 88%, yet faces challenges on grass. Ostapenko thrives on grass but shows vulnerability on hard courts. Both players have competed prominently in the Masters series, with Swiatek claiming a 82.86% win ratio, overshadowing Ostapenko’s 57.89%.

Given these statistics, Ostapenko seems favored based on historical head-to-head performance. However, Swiatek's rise and consistent form suggest a formidable challenge. As both competitors bring their strengths to play, the analysis leans towards Ostapenko securing victory once again, leveraging her proven track record in direct encounters. Nevertheless, Swiatek's potential for breakout performance cannot be underestimated.