Prediction of Hady Habib vs Juan Pablo Varillas at Guayaquil Challenger 11-21-25

• Recent second serve performance shows Hady Habib winning 44.32% of points, slightly outperforming Juan Pablo Varillas at 42.51%. Could this hint at an edge for Habib in tight matches?
• In return games, Hady Habib also leads, winning 48.02% of points on an opponent's second serve compared to Varillas's 43.24%.
• Both players are almost identical in first serve return performance, with Habib at 25.64% and Varillas at 25.68%.
• Under pressure, Habib has saved 60.43% of breakpoints, which is higher than Varillas's 56.82%.
• Juan Pablo Varillas has a better overall match win rate over the past year at 60.00% compared to Habib's 53.45%.
• Habib excels on hard courts, winning 67% of those matches, while Varillas thrives on clay, winning 67% there.
• In recent tournaments, both players perform similarly, although Varillas has a marginally higher win percentage in Challenger/ITF events above $10K.
• Habib faces tougher competition with his opponents ranked on average at 229.21, as opposed to Varillas's 299.11.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, the odds are nearly equal, with Varillas holding a narrow lead at 46% compared to Habib's 45%.
• In recent form, Varillas has a slight edge in breakpoint conversion at 33.77%, compared to Habib’s 31.43%.

Editorial Prediction (November 20, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing their second serve performance, Hady Habib shows a marginally better win percentage in recent months. This suggests a potential advantage in long rallies and resilience in service games.

While Habib demonstrates superior ability in return games, particularly against second serves, both players are nearly equal when it comes to first serve returns. This might result in closely contested service games.

When facing breakpoints, Habib appears to handle pressure slightly better than Juan Pablo Varillas, which could be crucial if the match becomes tightly contested and games go deep.

Over the past year, Varillas holds a better overall match win rate. However, Habib frequently competes against higher-ranked players, indicating his capability to challenge more skilled opponents.

While Habib is more successful on hard surfaces, Varillas shows proficiency on clay, suggesting different strengths based on surface conditions. Past performances should be considered if the current match surface differs from their favored types.

Considering all factors, such as tournament level experience, under-pressure performance, and opponent quality, Hady Habib appears to be slightly favored to win this upcoming match.