Felix Auger Aliassime vs Matteo Arnaldi Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent months, Aliassime has a slight edge in second serve points won, with 49.68% compared to Arnaldi's 48.13%. Could this be a key factor in their match-up?
• Examining return game performances, Aliassime again shows an advantage, winning 47.15% of points on opponents' second serves, while Arnaldi has secured 42.21%.
• First serve return statistics reveal Arnaldi slightly ahead, capturing 27.48% of points, as opposed to Aliassime's 23.96%. Will this be enough to offset other areas?
• When it comes to saving breakpoints, Aliassime displays robustness, successfully defending 64.06% of breakpoints, compared to Arnaldi's 54.97%.
• Overall, in the past year, Aliassime has a stronger success rate, winning 57.63% of his matches, while Arnaldi has won 50.98%.
• Aliassime excels on indoor hard courts, boasting a 69% win rate, whereas Arnaldi's best surface is clay with a 66% win rate.
• Match experiences differ, as Aliassime competes mostly on the Main tour, winning 65.63%, while Arnaldi focuses on the Masters series, winning 57.14% of his matches.
• The average ranking of opponents faced in the past year is slightly tougher for Arnaldi at 62.76 compared to Aliassime's 70.07. Does this indicate better preparation for Arnaldi?
• In deciding sets, Aliassime has proven to be more resilient, winning 54% of the time, versus Arnaldi's 47%.
• Arnaldi narrowly leads in breakpoint conversion with 27.63%, while Aliassime follows closely at 26.7%.

Editorial Prediction (May 27, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match is shaping up to be a close contest. Aliassime's slightly better performance on second serves and his stronger record in breaking back against second serves could provide a competitive edge. Additionally, his superior breakpoint defense could serve as an advantage under pressure.

Arnaldi's strengths lie in first serve returns and slightly better conversion of breakpoints, although these may not be sufficient to decisively tip the balance, given his recent overall form.

Considering Aliassime's consistent track record on the Main tour and his solid performance in deciding sets, he appears to be the more likely winner in this encounter.