Fabio Fognini vs Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Fognini and Alcaraz show close second serve effectiveness, with Alcaraz slightly ahead at 44.31% compared to Fognini's 43.68% over the past six months.
• In terms of return game performance, Fognini excels against second serves, with a 47.67% win rate versus Alcaraz's 42.38%.
• Their first serve return percentages are almost identical, with Fognini at 28.02% and Alcaraz at 27.95%.
• Alcaraz has a slight advantage in saving breakpoints, securing 53.93% compared to Fognini's 51.72%.
• Alcaraz exhibits a strong overall match win rate of 85.37% over the last year, significantly outperforming Fognini's 44.9% win rate.
• Which surface favors Alcaraz? Grass, where he has a 91% win rate. For Fognini, it’s clay with a 62% success rate.
• Alcaraz competes mainly at higher-level tournaments and holds a 79.17% win rate at Masters series events, while Fognini's competition level is generally lower.
• Historically, Alcaraz has dominated their face-offs, winning both encounters against Fognini.
• Their past matches average just over two hours, indicating closely contested games.
• If it goes to a deciding set, Alcaraz has the edge, winning 74% of such scenarios compared to Fognini’s 56%.
• Fognini's opponents have had a higher average rank over the past year, at 181.22, significantly lower than the quality of Alcaraz’s opponents, averaging a rank of 51.13.
• Does Fognini have an edge in extreme pressure? Only slightly; he won their only tiebreak encounter.
• In terms of breakpoint conversion, Fognini slightly edges out Alcaraz, converting 31.43% of chances compared to 30.89%.

Editorial Prediction (June 28, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match promises to be a clash of differing strengths. Alcaraz has demonstrated impressive overall performance, boasting an 85.37% win rate over the past year, indicative of his strong form and competitive prowess on various surfaces.

While Fognini holds the advantage in converting opponent’s second serves and slightly better breakpoint conversion, Alcaraz's superior breakpoint saving rate and high-level match experience give him a favorable position.

Their head-to-head record also underscores Alcaraz's upper hand, having won both previous matchups.

Taking these factors into account, Carlos Alcaraz is the likely winner of the upcoming match against Fabio Fognini.