Prediction of Erik Arutiunian vs Evgeny Philippov at M15 Sharm ElSheikh 12-03-25

• How do Erik Arutiunian and Evgeny Philippov compare in their second serve points? Erik has a slight edge, winning 48.45% compared to Evgeny's 47.65% over the last six months.
• In return games, Erik wins 42.06% of opponents' second serve points, while Evgeny wins 45.48%. For first serve returns, Evgeny also leads with 26.91% against Erik’s 21.99%.
• Both players show similar effectiveness under pressure, with Erik saving 52.41% of breakpoints and Evgeny closely behind at 52.38%.
• Considering match success over the past year, Erik has a notably higher win rate at 67.95% compared to Evgeny's 44.44%.
• On surfaces where they excel, both players have their best win percentage on indoor hard courts, each winning 65%.
• Erik has had greater success in Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K tournaments, boasting a 72.13% win rate over the past year, while Evgeny has a 43.75% win rate.
• In their direct head-to-head encounters, Evgeny leads with two wins out of three matches, but Erik claimed victory in their most recent match on a hard court.
• On average, Erik's competition has been slightly lower-ranked than Evgeny's, with Erik's opponents averaging a rank of 410.12 to Evgeny's 387.39.
• When matches go to a deciding set, Erik has shown superior resilience, winning 62% of these sets versus Evgeny’s 50%.
• Given these statistics, overall performance trends, and recent results, who seems more likely to have an edge?

Editorial Prediction (December 3, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing recent performances, Erik Arutiunian shows a marginal advantage in second serve performance, an essential factor correlated to match outcomes. Despite Evgeny Philippov performing better in return game statistics, their ability to save breakpoints is quite similar, indicating comparable effectiveness under pressure.

Erik’s substantial lead in match win percentage over the past year, especially in higher-level competitions, suggests a consistency that might tip the balance in his favor. Although Evgeny has a slight edge in their head-to-head record, Erik won their most recent encounter comprehensively on a similar surface.

Considering the current stats and historical data, Erik Arutiunian seems poised as the likely winner of the upcoming match, supported by his superior overall and event-specific performance metrics.