Emiliana Arango vs Varvara Gracheva Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In the last six months, Emiliana Arango has won 38.52% of points on her second serve, while Varvara Gracheva has won slightly more with 39.56%.
• Why is the second serve performance important? It highly correlates with match predictions, hinting at Gracheva having a small edge in this area.
• Arango holds a slight advantage in second serve return stats, winning 51.71% of her opponent’s points compared to Gracheva’s 50.22%.
• Arango also leads in first serve returns, capturing 36.73% of these points versus Gracheva’s 33.97%.
• Who thrives under pressure? Arango saves breakpoints at 48.65%, just ahead of Gracheva’s 48.48%, suggesting Arango might cope slightly better during critical points.
• Both players are evenly matched over the past year, with Gracheva winning 52.38% of her matches and Arango 50.72%.
• On Clay, both players share a 59% career win rate, indicating no clear advantage on their best surface.
• Arango competes mostly in Challenger/ITF events, winning 59.26%, whereas Gracheva plays in the Main tour, with a 50.00% win rate.
• What about direct encounters? Gracheva has a clear edge, having won their only H2H match decisively.
• Arango has faced opponents with an average rank of 169.17 while Gracheva’s opponents averaged a rank of 136.46, granting Gracheva more experience against higher-ranked competitors.
• If a match goes to a deciding set, Arango wins 53% of such sets, slightly more than Gracheva’s 52%.

Editorial Prediction (October 17, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Emiliana Arango and Varvara Gracheva promises to be a competitive encounter. Both players show strength on clay, but their recent form and individual strengths provide insights into possible outcomes.

Although Gracheva holds a minor lead in second serve performance, Arango's ability to return serves, particularly first serves, offers her a significant edge. Arango's knack for withstanding pressure through breakpoint saves also suggests resilience.

Gracheva has the advantage of playing and winning against stronger opponents over the last year and secured the only previous victory in their direct head-to-head match.

The deciding set outcomes are relatively balanced, but Gracheva's overall experience on the main tour and past victory against Arango tip the prediction in her favor. Therefore, Varvara Gracheva is the more likely winner in this match-up.