Elise Mertens vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In terms of recent second serve performance, Pegula has a slight edge, winning 43.48% of points compared to Mertens' 40.26%.
• When looking at return game stats, Mertens shows stronger form on opponents' second serves, winning 49.8% of points, while Pegula manages 46.53%.
• Pegula performs better on first serve returns, capturing 29.86% of points compared to Mertens' 27.31%.
• Both players exhibit similar resilience under pressure, with Pegula barely leading by saving 51.54% of breakpoints versus Mertens' 51.04%.
• Considering overall performance in the last year, Pegula has a significantly better win rate at 74.65% compared to Mertens' 58.93%.
• Both athletes have their highest career win percentage on hard courts, with Pegula slightly ahead at 67% against Mertens' 66%.
• In terms of match experience, Pegula tends to participate in higher-level Masters series events, boasting a 70.59% win ratio, while Mertens competes mostly on the Main tour, achieving a 64% win rate.
• Historically, Mertens holds an advantage head-to-head, winning 3 out of 4 encounters against Pegula. However, Pegula secured the latest victory at a significant event, the Australian Open.
• In tight matches that go the distance, Pegula has a stronger deciding set win rate of 67%, compared to Mertens' 47% over the past year.
• Mertens and Pegula have yet to face each other in a tiebreak situation, leaving that aspect of their matchup unexplored.
• The opponents faced by Pegula have generally been lower-ranked, with an average rank of 54.23, compared to Mertens whose adversaries average a rank of 62.13.
• Pegula has a slight advantage in breakpoint conversion at 34.36%, closely followed by Mertens at 33.53%.

Editorial Prediction (May 10, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Elise Mertens and Jessica Pegula presents an intriguing contrast of strengths and recent form. Pegula's consistent performance on second serves and ability to convert breakpoints may play a pivotal role in this encounter.

Mertens’ past success against Pegula could give her a psychological edge, yet Pegula's substantial improvement in match performance over the last year and her recent victory over Mertens at the Australian Open may shift the balance in her favor.

Considering their overall form, Pegula's higher win percentage on tour and proficiency in deciding sets underscore her current edge. Despite Mertens' historical head-to-head advantage, Pegula's current attributes make her the slight favorite to win the upcoming match.