Ekaterina Makarova (1996) vs Ariana Geerlings Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance indicates a slight edge for Geerlings, winning 38.09% of points compared to Makarova's 37.23% over the last six months. Could this be pivotal in their upcoming match?
• Return game stats highlight a strong performance from Geerlings, who has won 53.97% of her opponent's second serve points, contrasting with Makarova's 47.44%, suggesting Geerlings might have an edge in return games.
• In first serve returns, Makarova performs marginally better, winning 39.96% of points compared to Geerlings' 37.12%. Can Makarova exploit this slight advantage?
• Under pressure, Geerlings has saved 45.75% of breakpoints, slightly outperforming Makarova's 40.9%, which may be crucial for predicting match outcomes.
• Geerlings has a superior overall match win percentage over the past year with 62.16%, while Makarova has won 47.62% of her matches.
• Surface performance differences show Geerlings shines on Clay, winning 65% of her matches, whereas Makarova excels on Hard courts with a 59% win rate.
• Both players participate mostly in Challengers/ITF tournaments > $10K, with Geerlings winning 59.65% of such matches, compared to Makarova's 48.53%.
• Direct head-to-head meetings have resulted in Geerlings winning the only match 6-3, 6-1 on Clay at W 25 Palmanova, suggesting a historical advantage.
• In high-pressure situations like deciding sets, Geerlings has a slightly higher win rate at 56% versus Makarova's 53% over the past year.
• Geerlings faces opponents with an average rank of 407.8, slightly lower than Makarova's 363.67, indicating Makarova might play against tougher competition.
• Recent breakpoint conversion stats are nearly equal, with Makarova converting slightly better at 41.54% compared to Geerlings' 40.65%.
• Head-to-head never saw them playing a deciding set or tiebreak, making predictions in those scenarios less straightforward.

Editorial Prediction (May 8, 2025, UTC):

Given recent data, Geerlings appears to have a slight advantage over Makarova in several key areas that could be decisive in their upcoming match. Her performance on the second serve and in return games outshines Makarova's, possibly giving her the edge on critical points.

Their head-to-head history also favors Geerlings, who won convincingly in their previous encounter. Furthermore, her ability to perform under pressure, saving a higher percentage of breakpoints, may prove beneficial.

Makarova's strengths lie mainly in first serve return stats and slight superiority in hard court performance, but given the match will likely not be played on Hard, this advantage may not be as impactful.

Based on these comparisons, Geerlings is favored to emerge victorious in the upcoming match.