Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elise Mertens Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Mertens has recently won 40.8% of points on her second serve compared to Alexandrova's 40.71%. Is this enough to suggest a significant advantage? It's marginal.
• On return games, Alexandrova outshines Mertens by winning 51.86% of second serve points and 31.07% on first serves, against Mertens' 48.96% and 27.04%, respectively.
• Under pressure, Alexandrova slightly edges out Mertens with 50.6% of breakpoints saved compared to Mertens' 49.55%.
• Both players have a similar win-loss record over the past year, with Mertens at 61.4% (35/22) and Alexandrova at 60.71% (34/22). However, Alexandrova has a slight advantage in hard surface win percentage.
• Mertens thrives on hard courts with a 66% win rate but struggles on grass with 54%. Interesting to note, Alexandrova’s strongest suit is indoor hard with a 69% win ratio, and she is less successful on hard at 55%.
• When analyzing main tour performance, Mertens boasts a 70.37% win rate, exceeding Alexandrova's 66.67% win rate; they're comparable based on tour activity. Does this level the playing field?
• In past head-to-head encounters, Alexandrova leads with a 3-1 record, having captured 7 sets opposed to Mertens' 3, suggesting she might have an upper hand again.
• In matches going to a deciding set, Alexandrova holds a clear edge winning 55% of the time, indicating a stronger finish potential than Mertens' 44%.
• Mertens has faced opponents with an average rank of 60, whereas Alexandrova has played against slightly higher-ranked opponents averaging 50.61, hinting she might be better tested.
• In terms of break point conversion, Alexandrova converts 33.05% of her opportunities compared to Mertens' 31.53%, a slight edge showing her offensive capability under pressure.

Editorial Prediction (June 13, 2025, UTC):

Based on recent performances, Alexandrova demonstrates a small yet statistically noticeable advantage in several key areas, including return game strength and breakpoint opportunities.

Historical data from head-to-head matchups also places Alexandrova in a favorable position, showcasing her ability to outperform Mertens, particularly on hard courts.

While Mertens has strengths of her own, the combination of Alexandrova’s consistency in pressure situations and her record against higher-caliber opponents suggests she is more likely to win this upcoming match.

Considering all factors, Ekaterina Alexandrova is the favored player to win the upcoming tennis match against Elise Mertens.