Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance gives Tomljanovic a slight edge, winning 41.27% compared to Alexandrova's 40.49%. Is this enough for a predictive advantage? It could be.
• Tomljanovic has been more successful in return games, capturing 50.93% of points on her opponent's second serve, whereas Alexandrova manages 49.94%.
• In first serve returns, Tomljanovic also leads with 32.33% compared to Alexandrova's 29.97%, indicating better returning ability.
• Under pressure, Tomljanovic shines by saving 53.95% of breakpoints, a critical stat when considering in-game pressures, while Alexandrova saves 48.92%.
• While Tomljanovic has a respectable 55.56% win rate over the last year, Alexandrova outperforms her with a 62.9% win rate.
• Tomljanovic shows her best record on Grass surfaces with a 59% win rate, while Alexandrova excels on I.hard surfaces with a 69% win rate.
• Both players compete predominantly on the Main tour, with Alexandrova having a higher win percentage at 68.97% compared to Tomljanovic's 64.29%.
• Historically in direct matches, Alexandrova has the upper hand, winning the only encounter in straight sets.
• In tiebreaks against each other, Alexandrova leads by winning the only one they have played.
• Tomljanovic has faced opponents with a significantly lower average ranking (121.43) than Alexandrova (61.32) in the past year, suggesting Alexandrova has been tested against tougher competition.
• If the match goes to a deciding set, Tomljanovic has a higher win rate of 64% versus Alexandrova's 55% in the last 12 months.
• Tomljanovic has been more efficient in converting breakpoints, with a 41.92% conversion rate compared to Alexandrova's 34.21%.

Editorial Prediction (August 21, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Tomljanovic and Alexandrova is poised to be a competitive encounter, with both players possessing unique strengths. Tomljanovic has shown superiority in second serve and return statistics, which often correlate with overall match success.

Despite Tomljanovic's apparent edge in these areas, Alexandrova's higher win rate over the past year, particularly against stronger opponents, cannot be overlooked. Her previous victory over Tomljanovic may also provide a psychological advantage heading into this match.

Tomljanovic's ability to save breakpoints and convert opportunities at a higher rate could give her critical points in the match, particularly if it goes the distance where she has a proven better performance in deciding sets.

Considering these factors, while Tomljanovic has the tools to challenge Alexandrova effectively, the predicted likelihood of winning slightly favors Alexandrova due to her overall robust performance and historical edge in head-to-head competition.