Prediction of Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo 09-24-25

Wojtek Kolan

Published on 24 Sep at 05:00 AM UTC

Alcaraz is scheduled to play Baez on 24 Sep Wed at 05:00 AM UTC in the Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo, First round.

Our Predictions

H2H Records Career Stats

HEAD TO HEAD
C. Alcaraz vs S. Baez

Carlos Alcaraz

ESP

2

Win

Played

0

Win

Age

6'1" (185 cm)

Height

5'7" (170 cm)

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

Ytd Titles

$39.5M

Career Money

$3.4M

Right-Handed

Plays

Right-Handed

Sebastian Baez

ARG

2

Win

Played

0

Win

Age

6'1" (185 cm)

Height

5'7" (170 cm)

C. Rank

Best Rank

Total Titles

Ytd Titles

$39.5M

Career Money

$3.4M

Right-Handed

Plays

Right-Handed

C. Alcaraz Vs S. Baez Picks

Based on the implied probability from the match winner, Carlos Alcaraz has a 90.22% chance to get the victory. Login / Register to find out our expert prediction.

BE AWARE: Join the Matchstat.com tennis picks club to show implied and our expert predictions to discover edge in order to unlock winning bets.

To Win

Match	Bookie Prediction	Bookie Odds
C. Alcaraz	90.22%	1.1
S. Baez	9.78%	10.14

Above is implied from odds. Login / Register to find out our expert predictions with edge / profit forecast.

Total Games

Market	Bookie Prediction	Bookie Odds
Over 19	60.61%	1.65
Over 20	60.61%	1.65

Above is implied from odds. Login / Register to find out our expert predictions with edge / profit forecast.

See All Today’s Tennis Predictions

Head-To-Head: Alcaraz 2 - 0 Baez

Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez have faced each other in six sets, with Alcaraz winning all six and Baez yet to secure a set. Their most recent encounter occurred at the U.S. Open in New York on August 30, 2022, during the first round on a hard court. In this match, Alcaraz emerged victorious with scores of 7-5, 7-5, 2-0, following Baez's retirement.

Players	Head To Head Match Wins
Alcaraz	2
Baez	0

Last H2H Matches:

(R1) U.S. Open - New York(08-30-22)

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

Sebastian Baez

(SF) Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan(11-12-21)

Stats

Carlos Alcaraz

Sebastian Baez

C. Alcaraz Vs S. Baez Best Odds

1x2

1.1

10.14

Games O/U

> 19

1.65

> 20

1.65

C. Alcaraz vs S. Baez H2H Profile

C. Alcaraz	Stats	S. Baez
$39,496,665	Career Prize Money	$3,417,730
80.88% (351-83)	Career Total W/L	61.36% (270-170)
1	Hard	0
1	Indoor	0
31	Titles	18
2	Total H2H Matches	0
89.86% (62-7)	YTD Win/Loss	45.71% (16-19)
7	YTD Titles	1

C. Alcaraz vs S. Baez Match Preview
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo

Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Carlos Alcaraz has won 45.71% of points on their second serve, while Sebastian Baez has won 45.69%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Carlos Alcaraz, in recent form, has won 41.81% of their opponent's second serve points, while Sebastian Baez has won 48.45%. The same stats for first serve returns are 25.59% and 31.87% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
Under pressure analysis: Carlos Alcaraz has saved 54.20% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Sebastian Baez has saved 49.28% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
Performance overview: Over the last year Carlos Alcaraz has won 86.90% of matches played (W/L 73/ 11), with Sebastian Baez winning 42.22% (W/L 73/ 26) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
Best surface: Carlos Alcaraz has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 90% (W/L 35/ 4), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 69% (W/L 31/ 14). Sebastian Baez has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 69% (W/L 229/ 102), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 14% (W/L 3/ 19).
Player level: In the last year, Carlos Alcaraz has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 86.21% of matches (W/L 25/ 4), where as Sebastian Baez has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 57.69% of matches (W/L 15/ 11). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
Direct H2H matches: They have played 2 times before with Carlos Alcaraz winning 2 times and Sebastian Baez being victorious 0 times. They have played 6 sets in total, with Carlos Alcaraz winning 6 and Sebastian Baez winning 0. The last match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez was at the U.S. Open - New York, 30-08-2022, Round: R1, Surface: Hard, with Carlos Alcaraz getting the victory 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret..
Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:46:6.
Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Carlos Alcaraz has played against opponents with an average rank of 51.02 while Sebastian Baez has played against players with an average rank of 84.64.
Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Carlos Alcaraz has won 79% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Sebastian Baez has won 32% in all matches played on tour.
Current event H2H stats: Past player performance is very useful in predicting tennis matches, but once an event is under way we should also look at current event stats for in form player indication, so check the section below (if they have played a match in the current event). Some players also perform better at certain events and this should be taken into account when picking the outcome.
Break point conversion: In recent form, Carlos Alcaraz has converted 30.83% of breakpoint opportunities, and Sebastian Baez has converted 34.16% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Editorial Preview By TennisTipster88.

C. Alcaraz vs S. Baez H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

C. Alcaraz	Stats	S. Baez
2	H2H Matches Won	0
6	Sets Won	0
28	Games Won	15
8	Aces (Total)	1
6	Total Double Faults	2
1:46:6	Avg. Match Time	1:46:6
64% (87/137)	1st Serve %	73% (100/137)
72% (63/87)	1st Serve Win %	58% (58/100)
62% (31/50)	2nd Serve Win %	41% (15/37)
41% (9/22)	Break Pts Won %	15% (2/13)
47% (64/137)	Return Pts Won %	31% (43/137)
100% (2/2)	Best‑of‑5 Win %	0% (0/2)
100% (2/2)	1st Set Won → Match Won	0% (0/0)
0% (0/2)	1st Set Won → Match Lost	0% (0/0)
0% (0/0)	1st Set Lost → Match Won	0% (0/2)

Recent Performance Stats

C. Alcaraz Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
Laver Cup - San Francisco - 15-09-2025
Robin Francisco CerundoloF. Cerundolo	W	6-2 6-1	Stats
Robin Taylor FritzT. Fritz	L	6-3 6-2	Stats
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
F Jannik SinnerJ. Sinner	W	6-2 3-6 6-1 6-4	Stats
SF Novak DjokovicN. Djokovic	W	6-4 7-6(4) 6-2	Stats
QF Jiri LeheckaJ. Lehecka	W	6-4 6-2 6-4	Stats

View All

S. Baez Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT	RESULT	SCORE	H2H
U.S. Open - New York - 25-08-2025
R1 Lloyd HarrisL. Harris	L	6-3 7-5 6-4	Stats
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem - 18-08-2025
R3 Botic Van De ZandschulpB. Van	L	0-6 6-1 6-4	Stats
R2 Pablo Carreno-BustaP. Carreno-Busta	W	7-5 6-2	Stats
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati - 04-08-2025
R2 Gabriel DialloG. Diallo	L	7-5 6-4	Stats
R1 David GoffinD. Goffin	W	6-1 6-3	Stats

View All

Where To Watch Alcaraz Vs Baez?

When the match starts we will have live scores and stats on this page. For live streaming at TV channels of this match, see our ATP and WTA worldwide viewing pages. Free trial live streaming of Alcaraz Vs Baez is now available here.

C. Alcaraz vs S. Baez Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

C. Alcaraz	Stats	S. Baez
80.54% (120/29)	YTD Win/Loss	46.67% (35/40)
74.29% (289/100)	Sets Win/Loss	46.28% (87/101)
58.31% (2161/1545)	Games Win/Loss	49.05% (874/908)
0.35	Aces Per Game	0.19
640	Aces Total	164
0.2	Double Faults Per Game	0.16
370	Total Double Faults	139
1st Match	Average Match Time	1:48:53
163.19	Average Opponent Rank	257.79
64% (7216/11240)	1st Serve %	72% (4052/5660)
73% (5233/7216)	1st Serve Win %	64% (2589/4052)
57% (2303/4024)	2nd Serve Win %	50% (796/1608)
41% (573/1396)	Break Points Won % (Total)	42% (234/561)
42% (5195/12356)	Return Points Win %	39% (2212/5643)
79% (85/108)	Best of 3 Sets Win %	47% (29/62)
85% (33/39)	Best of 5 Sets Win %	46% (6/13)
60% (37/62)	Tiebreaks Win % (Total)	35% (8/23)
63% (24/38)	Deciding Set Win %	47% (9/19)
92% (114/105)	1st Set Won, Won Match	78% (37/29)
8% (114/9)	1st Set Won, Lost Match	22% (37/8)
41% (34/14)	1st Set Lost, Won Match	16% (38/6)