Prediction of Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Terence Atmane at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai 10-02-25

• Second Serve Performance: In the last six months, Camilo Ugo Carabelli has achieved a 45.12% success rate on second serve points, whereas Terence Atmane slightly edges ahead with 46.31%. Could this small advantage influence the match outcome? It might play a subtle role.
• Return Game Analysis: When returning second serves, Carabelli has a slight edge with a win rate of 45.85% compared to Atmane's 45.17%. On first serve returns, Carabelli significantly leads 27.41% to Atmane's 22.82%. Does Carabelli's return game suggest a decisive advantage? It certainly strengthens his position.
• Pressure Management: Under pressure, Atmane has saved 61.94% of breakpoints, which is a more robust stat compared to Carabelli's 56.34%. This resilience might be crucial in high-pressure situations.
• Overall Match Performance: Over the last year, Carabelli boasts a higher match win percentage of 62.03%, overshadowing Atmane's 55.07%. Could this consistency be the deciding factor in their matchup? Possibly, as it signifies a greater overall performance.
• Surface Preference: Carabelli excels on clay with a 65% career win rate, but has not won on grass. Atmane's forte is hard courts with a 65% win rate, yet he too struggles on grass with 33%. How will surface type factor into this matchup? It might depend on the current event surface.
• Player Experience: In the past year, Carabelli has been more successful at the Challenger/ITF tournaments > $10K, winning 80% of his matches, surpassing Atmane's 59.46%. Could experience be in Carabelli's favor? His better win rate suggests so.
• Opponent Quality: Carabelli has competed against stronger opponents, with an average opponent ranking of 162.97, compared to Atmane's 207.62. Does this indicate Carabelli is more accustomed to high-level competition? It certainly reflects well on his competitive experience.
• Deciding Set Performance: In deciding sets, Carabelli emerges vastly superior, winning 77% compared to Atmane's 48%. Does this imply Carabelli has the upper hand in crucial moments? Indeed, it suggests a mental and physical toughness.

Editorial Prediction (October 1, 2025, UTC):

As the players prepare for their upcoming match, several key statistics stand out, favoring Camilo Ugo Carabelli. His superior return game, highlighted by higher win rates on first and second serves, suggests an ability to put pressure on Terence Atmane's serves.

Despite Atmane's resilience in breakpoint scenarios, Carabelli's overall match win record and performance against tougher opponents give him a competitive edge. His proficiency in closing out deciding sets further tips the scales in his favor.

While Atmane shows a slight advantage in second serve points and overall pressure management, Carabelli's experience in higher-level competitions and ability to navigate critical moments are compelling factors.

Considering these elements, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the favorite to win this upcoming match, given his consistent track record and adaptability under pressure.