Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com
By Wojtek Kolan
At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Sabalenka vs Keys analysis and find out who is favored!
Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Important H2H Prediction Stats:
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Sabalenka has won 48% of points on his second serve, while Keys has won 50%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Sabalenka, in recent form, has won 58.22% of his opponent's second serve points, while Keys has won 47.95%. The same stats for first serve returns are 36.78% and 30.29% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Sabalenka has saved 62.12% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Keys has saved 62.12% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Sabalenka has won 76.92% of matches played (W/L 50/ 15), with Keys winning 64.71% (W/L 22/ 12) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Sabalenka has their best career surface win % on Hard, winning 71% (W/L 237/ 95), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 62% (W/L 69/ 43). Keys has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 73% (W/L 46/ 17), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 53% (W/L 17/ 15).
- Player level: In the last year, Sabalenka has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 18/ 9), where as Keys has played most of their matches on the Grand Slam, winning 76.92% of matches (W/L 10/ 3). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 4 times before with Sabalenka winning 3 times. They have played 10 sets in total, with Sabalenka winning 7 and Keys winning 3. The last match between Sabalenka and Keys was at the U.S. Open - New York, 07-09-2023, Semifinals, Hard with Aryna Sabalenka getting the victory .
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 1:47:49.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Sabalenka and Keys have played a deciding set 2 times, with Sabalenka winning 1 times and Keys 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 2 tiebreaks against each other with Sabalenka winning 2, and Keys 0.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Sabalenka has played against opponents with an average rank of 60.63 while Keys has played against players with an average rank of 122.15.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Sabalenka has won 50% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Keys has won 44% in all matches played on tour.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Sabalenka has converted 46.49% of breakpoint opportunities, and Keys has converted 35.29% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 3 - 1 Keys
20
Total
5
Mast
4
Chall
2
Slam
7
Main
2
Minor
2
Rank
1
High
25
Age
R
Plays
3
Total1
2
Hard0
0
Clay0
0
Indoor0
1
Grass1
20
Rank
7
High
29
Age
R
Plays
11
Total
1
Mast
2
Chall
0
Slam
7
Main
1
Minor
Form
68% (383-179)
Career Total W/L
63% (363-210)
79% (15-4)
YTD W/L
50% (3-3)
$18,896,949
Career Prize Money
$14,618,837
1
YTD Titles
0
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
stats | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys |
---|---|---|
All H2H Matches | 3 | 1 |
Sets Won | 7 | 3 |
Games Won | 53 | 45 |
Aces (Total) | 25 | 26 |
DFs (Total) | 17 | 8 |
Avg Match Time | 1:47:49 | 1:47:49 |
1st Serve % | 60% (208/344) | 69% (216/311) |
1st Serve Win% | 71% (147/208) | 66% (142/216) |
2nd Serve Win% | 50% (68/136) | 41% (39/95) |
BPs Won% (Total) | 46% (13/28) | 28% (11/39) |
Return Points W% | 42% (130/311) | 38% (129/344) |
Best of 3 Sets W% | 75% (3/4) | 25% (1/4) |
Best of 5 Sets W% | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
TBs Win% (Total) | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/2) |
Deciding Set Win% | 50% (1/2) | 50% (1/2) |
1st set W, W | 100% (2/2) | 50% (2/1) |
1st set W, L | 0% (2/0) | 50% (2/1) |
1st set L, W | 50% (2/1) | 0% (2/0) |
Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
65%
(
64 of
98)
1st Serve %
69%
(
76 of
110)
12
Aces
5
4
Double Faults
3
64%
(
41 of
64)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
47 of
76)
56%
(
19 of
34)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
16 of
34)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
55%
(
6 of
11)
39%
(
38 of
98)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
47 of
110)
107
Total Points Won
101
|
||||
6-2 6-4 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
57%
(
36 of
63)
1st Serve %
72%
(
49 of
68)
2
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
2
75%
(
27 of
36)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
28 of
49)
52%
(
14 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
7 of
19)
44%
(
4 of
9)
Break Points Won
25%
(
1 of
4)
35%
(
22 of
63)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
33 of
68)
74
Total Points Won
57
|
||||
6-4 1-6 7-5 |
Madison Keys
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
68%
(
53 of
78)
1st Serve %
58%
(
60 of
104)
8
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
7
72%
(
38 of
53)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
41 of
60)
44%
(
11 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
21 of
44)
29%
(
4 of
14)
Break Points Won
67%
(
4 of
6)
37%
(
29 of
78)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
42 of
104)
91
Total Points Won
91
|
||||
6-3 6-4 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
61%
(
48 of
79)
1st Serve %
69%
(
38 of
55)
6
Aces
8
4
Double Faults
1
79%
(
38 of
48)
1st Serve Won
76%
(
29 of
38)
45%
(
14 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
29%
(
5 of
17)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
10)
34%
(
27 of
79)
Rtn Points Won
38%
(
21 of
55)
73
Total Points Won
61
|
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
stats | Aryna Sabalenka | Madison Keys |
---|---|---|
YTD W/L | 79% (15/4) | 50% (3/3) |
Sets Win/Loss | 76% (32/10) | 50% (7/7) |
Games Win/Loss | 60% (226/149) | 48% (67/72) |
Hard Win/Loss | 78% (14/4) | 60% (3/2) |
Clay Win/Loss | 100% (1/0) | 0% (0/1) |
Indoor Hard W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Grass Win/Loss | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Aces pg | 0.56 | 0.36 |
Aces Total | 101 | 24 |
DFs per game | 0.3 | 0.24 |
DFs Total | 55 | 16 |
Avg Match Time | 1:31:48 | 1:45:23 |
Avg Opp Rank | 78.53 | 209.67 |
1st Serve % | 63% (758/1196) | 65% (309/476) |
1st Serve W% | 73% (551/758) | 64% (198/309) |
2nd Serve W% | 49% (213/438) | 49% (82/167) |
BPs Won% Total | 47% (74/159) | 40% (17/42) |
Return Pts W% | 46% (561/1215) | 40% (184/458) |
Slam W/L | 100% (7/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Masters W/L | 50% (3/3) | 60% (3/2) |
Cups W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Main Tour W/L | 83% (5/1) | 0% (0/1) |
Tour Finals W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Challenger W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Futures W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
Best of 3 Sets W% | 78% (14/18) | 50% (3/6) |
Best of 5 Sets W% | 100% (1/1) | 0% (0/0) |
TBs Win% (Total) | 80% (4/5) | 100% (2/2) |
Deciding Set W% | 25% (1/4) | 50% (1/2) |
1st set W, W | 87% (15/13) | 75% (4/3) |
1st set W, L | 7% (15/1) | 25% (4/1) |
1st set L, W | 25% (4/1) | 0% (2/0) |
Aryna Sabalenka Recent Matches Played
opponent | Score | H2H | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Paula Badosa Gibert
66%
(
70 of
106)
1st Serve %
66%
(
59 of
90)
4
Aces
4
3
Double Faults
5
70%
(
49 of
70)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
40 of
59)
44%
(
16 of
36)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
15 of
31)
33%
(
3 of
9)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
39%
(
41 of
106)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
35 of
90)
100
Total Points Won
96
|
7-6(4) 4-6 3-3 ret. | H2H | ||
R3 |
Anhelina Kalinina
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
67%
(
55 of
82)
1st Serve %
66%
(
50 of
76)
1
Aces
3
5
Double Faults
6
60%
(
33 of
55)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
31 of
50)
37%
(
10 of
27)
2nd Serve Won
31%
(
8 of
26)
55%
(
6 of
11)
Break Points Won
45%
(
5 of
11)
48%
(
39 of
82)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
37 of
76)
80
Total Points Won
78
|
6-4 1-6 6-1 | H2H | ||
R2 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Paula Badosa Gibert
76%
(
39 of
51)
1st Serve %
59%
(
44 of
74)
3
Aces
3
4
Double Faults
4
77%
(
30 of
39)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
27 of
44)
58%
(
7 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
14 of
30)
38%
(
3 of
8)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
27%
(
14 of
51)
Rtn Points Won
45%
(
33 of
74)
70
Total Points Won
55
|
6-4 6-3 | H2H | ||
R4 |
Emma Navarro
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
60%
(
54 of
90)
1st Serve %
58%
(
42 of
73)
2
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
4
65%
(
35 of
54)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
26 of
42)
56%
(
20 of
36)
2nd Serve Won
61%
(
19 of
31)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
33%
(
2 of
6)
39%
(
35 of
90)
Rtn Points Won
38%
(
28 of
73)
83
Total Points Won
80
|
6-3 3-6 6-2 | H2H | ||
R3 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Emma Raducanu
63%
(
47 of
75)
1st Serve %
62%
(
36 of
58)
8
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
4
74%
(
35 of
47)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
24 of
36)
54%
(
15 of
28)
2nd Serve Won
55%
(
12 of
22)
43%
(
3 of
7)
Break Points Won
10%
(
1 of
10)
33%
(
25 of
75)
Rtn Points Won
38%
(
22 of
58)
72
Total Points Won
61
|
6-3 7-5 | H2H | ||
R2 |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Peyton Stearns
61%
(
67 of
109)
1st Serve %
64%
(
75 of
117)
10
Aces
3
9
Double Faults
4
76%
(
51 of
67)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
47 of
75)
43%
(
18 of
42)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
19 of
42)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
40%
(
4 of
10)
37%
(
40 of
109)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
51 of
117)
120
Total Points Won
106
|
6-7(2) 6-2 7-6(6) | H2H | ||
R2 |
Donna Vekic
Player
Aryna Sabalenka
54%
(
59 of
109)
1st Serve %
57%
(
52 of
91)
14
Aces
8
5
Double Faults
8
63%
(
37 of
59)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
31 of
52)
54%
(
27 of
50)
2nd Serve Won
41%
(
16 of
39)
70%
(
7 of
10)
Break Points Won
21%
(
3 of
14)
41%
(
45 of
109)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
44 of
91)
108
Total Points Won
92
|
6-7(5) 6-3 6-0 | H2H | ||
F |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Qinwen Zheng
67%
(
38 of
57)
1st Serve %
53%
(
27 of
51)
3
Aces
6
0
Double Faults
6
84%
(
32 of
38)
1st Serve Won
74%
(
20 of
27)
42%
(
8 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
9 of
24)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
30%
(
17 of
57)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
22 of
51)
62
Total Points Won
46
|
6-3 6-2 | H2H | ||
SF |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Cori Gauff
76%
(
50 of
66)
1st Serve %
57%
(
48 of
84)
4
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
8
70%
(
35 of
50)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
31 of
48)
50%
(
8 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
39%
(
14 of
36)
40%
(
4 of
10)
Break Points Won
75%
(
3 of
4)
35%
(
23 of
66)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
39 of
84)
82
Total Points Won
68
|
7-6(2) 6-4 | H2H | ||
QF |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Barbora Krejcikova
63%
(
25 of
40)
1st Serve %
59%
(
29 of
49)
4
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
72%
(
18 of
25)
1st Serve Won
55%
(
16 of
29)
53%
(
8 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
20%
(
4 of
20)
67%
(
6 of
9)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
35%
(
14 of
40)
Rtn Points Won
59%
(
29 of
49)
55
Total Points Won
34
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H |
view more
Madison Keys Recent Matches Played
opponent | Score | H2H | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 |
Jaqueline Cristian
Player
Madison Keys
52%
(
45 of
86)
1st Serve %
66%
(
56 of
85)
0
Aces
8
5
Double Faults
4
67%
(
30 of
45)
1st Serve Won
59%
(
33 of
56)
49%
(
20 of
41)
2nd Serve Won
48%
(
14 of
29)
40%
(
6 of
15)
Break Points Won
50%
(
4 of
8)
42%
(
36 of
86)
Rtn Points Won
45%
(
38 of
85)
88
Total Points Won
83
|
3-6 6-3 6-3 | H2H | ||
R4 |
Elena Rybakina
Player
Madison Keys
65%
(
41 of
63)
1st Serve %
75%
(
47 of
63)
5
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
0
80%
(
33 of
41)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
29 of
47)
50%
(
11 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
7 of
16)
38%
(
3 of
8)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
30%
(
19 of
63)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
27 of
63)
71
Total Points Won
55
|
6-3 7-5 | H2H | ||
R3 |
Madison Keys
Player
Xinyu Wang
59%
(
42 of
71)
1st Serve %
58%
(
51 of
88)
3
Aces
5
1
Double Faults
0
71%
(
30 of
42)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
34 of
51)
66%
(
19 of
29)
2nd Serve Won
54%
(
20 of
37)
29%
(
2 of
7)
Break Points Won
20%
(
1 of
5)
31%
(
22 of
71)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
34 of
88)
83
Total Points Won
76
|
6-4 7-6(5) | H2H | ||
R2 |
Madison Keys
Player
Diana Shnaider
73%
(
49 of
67)
1st Serve %
69%
(
35 of
51)
8
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
3
73%
(
36 of
49)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
20 of
35)
44%
(
8 of
18)
2nd Serve Won
31%
(
5 of
16)
100%
(
4 of
4)
Break Points Won
17%
(
1 of
6)
34%
(
23 of
67)
Rtn Points Won
51%
(
26 of
51)
70
Total Points Won
48
|
6-2 6-4 | H2H | ||
R3 |
Yulia Putintseva
Player
Madison Keys
65%
(
36 of
55)
1st Serve %
56%
(
32 of
57)
0
Aces
0
5
Double Faults
1
72%
(
26 of
36)
1st Serve Won
53%
(
17 of
32)
53%
(
10 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
11 of
25)
71%
(
5 of
7)
Break Points Won
13%
(
1 of
8)
35%
(
19 of
55)
Rtn Points Won
51%
(
29 of
57)
65
Total Points Won
47
|
6-4 6-1 | H2H | ||
R2 |
Madison Keys
Player
Hailey Baptiste
62%
(
83 of
133)
1st Serve %
51%
(
59 of
115)
2
Aces
3
8
Double Faults
9
64%
(
53 of
83)
1st Serve Won
66%
(
39 of
59)
46%
(
23 of
50)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
26 of
56)
38%
(
5 of
13)
Break Points Won
31%
(
5 of
16)
43%
(
57 of
133)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
50 of
115)
126
Total Points Won
122
|
6-4 4-6 7-6(4) | H2H | ||
Robin |
Caroline Garcia
Player
Madison Keys
54%
(
36 of
67)
1st Serve %
74%
(
49 of
66)
5
Aces
12
2
Double Faults
1
83%
(
30 of
36)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
36 of
49)
68%
(
21 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
65%
(
11 of
17)
33%
(
1 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
2)
24%
(
16 of
67)
Rtn Points Won
29%
(
19 of
66)
70
Total Points Won
63
|
6-3 7-6(3) | H2H | ||
Robin |
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Player
Madison Keys
68%
(
47 of
69)
1st Serve %
67%
(
37 of
55)
5
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
4
68%
(
32 of
47)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
25 of
37)
64%
(
14 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
8 of
18)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
14%
(
1 of
7)
33%
(
23 of
69)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
22 of
55)
68
Total Points Won
56
|
6-4 6-4 | H2H | ||
R2 |
Emma Navarro
Player
Madison Keys
64%
(
46 of
72)
1st Serve %
64%
(
44 of
69)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
5
61%
(
28 of
46)
1st Serve Won
64%
(
28 of
44)
58%
(
15 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
9 of
25)
71%
(
5 of
7)
Break Points Won
60%
(
3 of
5)
40%
(
29 of
72)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
32 of
69)
75
Total Points Won
66
|
6-2 7-6(5) | H2H | ||
SF |
Aryna Sabalenka
Player
Madison Keys
65%
(
64 of
98)
1st Serve %
69%
(
76 of
110)
12
Aces
5
4
Double Faults
3
64%
(
41 of
64)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
47 of
76)
56%
(
19 of
34)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
16 of
34)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
55%
(
6 of
11)
39%
(
38 of
98)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
47 of
110)
107
Total Points Won
101
|
0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) | H2H |
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