Aryna Sabalenka vs Leylah Annie Fernandez Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Although Sabalenka has a slightly lower second serve win percentage (39.41%) compared to Fernandez (42.05%), her overall match-winning percentage in the past year (83.75%) is notably higher than that of Fernandez (55.36%).
• Both players have identical performance on first serve returns (29.8%), yet Sabalenka has a slight edge in winning points on opponent's second serves (48.12% vs. 47.12%).
• In break-point situations, Fernandez showcases a marginal advantage by saving 52.87% of breakpoints, just surpassing Sabalenka's 51.97%.
• Historically, hard surfaces have been more favorable to Sabalenka, with a career win rate of 74%, while Fernandez excels on indoor hard surfaces at 71%.
• Sabalenka competes predominantly in Masters series events, with an impressive win rate of 80.95%, whereas Fernandez leads in Main tour matches with 65.52% wins. Might Sabalenka have an edge due to facing tougher competition?
• Fernandez leads their direct head-to-head encounters, having won the only match played. However, notable is the fact that Sabalenka won a set in that match, suggesting closely contested competition.
• In high-pressure scenarios, such as deciding sets, Sabalenka has a superior record at 63% wins versus Fernandez's 50% over the last year.
• Sabalenka has been competing against higher-ranked opponents, averaging a rank of 45.2, compared to Fernandez's 198.09, hinting at Sabalenka's experience against tougher players.
• When it comes to break-point conversion, Fernandez again takes the lead with 37.66% conversion rate compared to Sabalenka’s 31.96%, offering her an edge in critical points.

Editorial Prediction (August 29, 2025, UTC):

In the upcoming matchup, both players exhibit distinct strengths. While Sabalenka has superior overall win percentages and performs well against top-ranked players, Fernandez shows consistent prowess in direct head-to-head battles and high-pressure situations.

Sabalenka's experience on hard courts, combined with her ability to maintain composure in deciding sets, suggests she might overcome past losses against Fernandez. Yet Fernandez's ability to capitalize on break-point opportunities could prove pivotal.

Ultimately, although Fernandez has an edge in certain areas, Sabalenka's formidable record against tough opponents and on hard surfaces positions her as the likely favorite to win this match.