Prediction of Arthur Gea vs Leo Deflandre at M25 Monastir 10-08-25

• Arthur Gea has a stronger recent second serve performance, winning 42.91% of points compared to Leo Deflandre's 40.52%.
• In return games, Arthur Gea excels by winning 48.62% of opponents' second serve points, while Leo Deflandre achieves 41.53%.
• First serve return stats show Arthur Gea with a significant edge, winning 30.04% compared to Deflandre's 18.22%.
• Gea has demonstrated greater resilience under pressure, saving 47.55% of breakpoints, slightly higher than Deflandre's 45.61%.
• Overall match performance over the last year favors Gea, with a win rate of 63.64% versus Deflandre's 48.78%.
• Both players have their best surface on Hard with a 75% win rate; however, Gea plays significantly better on Clay compared to Deflandre.
• Gea has dominated in Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments $10K, achieving an 87.80% win rate, whereas Deflandre has a win rate of 48.78% at this level.
• Direct head-to-head stats show Gea leading, with a 1-0 record against Deflandre, winning the last match on a Hard surface 6-1, 6-2.
• Gea has competed against higher-ranked opponents with an average rank of 383.83, while Deflandre faced players with an average rank of 172.68.
• In deciding sets, Gea's winning rate is 41%, offering a slight edge over Deflandre's 30% win rate in crucial moments.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

Arthur Gea's superior second serve performance and ability to capitalize on return games give him a distinct edge in this matchup. His higher breakpoint saving rate and overall better win percentage over the last year suggest resilience and consistency under pressure.

In head-to-head encounters, Gea has shown dominance, having won their only meeting decisively. His effective performance on Hard surfaces matches that of Deflandre, but Gea's all-around game appears more potent.

Considering recent form, experience against higher-ranked opponents, and past head-to-head success, Arthur Gea is favored to win this upcoming match.