Prediction of Andrey Chepelev vs Gian Gruenig at M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 10-08-25

• Question: How do players compare in second serve performance over the past 6 months? Answer: Gian Gruenig has a stronger second serve performance, winning 49.39% of points compared to Andrey Chepelev's 40.15%.
• Return game analysis shows Andrey Chepelev wins 47.53% on opponents' second serves, slightly less than Gian Gruenig's 48.83%. On first serve returns, Chepelev leads with 30.53% against Gruenig's 27.72%.
• Chepelev excels under pressure, saving 51.94% of breakpoints, outperforming Gruenig's 43.33% and potentially making him more resilient in critical moments.
• Performance overview indicates Chepelev's better win rate over the past year at 62.22%, while Gruenig has won 51.61% of his matches.
• Both players perform best on clay with a career win rate of 61%, but Gruenig struggles more on I.hard with no wins, compared to Chepelev's 29% win rate.
• Chepelev's opponents have an average rank of 478.06, significantly lower than Gruenig's 190.32, indicating Chepelev may face less challenging competition.
• In deciding sets, Chepelev also shows an edge, winning 59% of such matches compared to Gruenig's 50%.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

In assessing the upcoming match between Andrey Chepelev and Gian Gruenig, several factors lean in Chepelev's favor. Chepelev demonstrates stronger breakpoint resilience, which could be decisive in high-pressure scenarios. His consistent performance under pressure marks him as a player who can maintain composure during critical points.

Chepelev's overall performance over the past year also indicates a higher win rate compared to Gruenig. Coupled with a more commanding performance in crucial deciding sets, Chepelev seems equipped to handle longer battles and high-stakes moments more effectively.

While Gruenig's second serve points and average opponent rank suggest he's faced stronger opponents, Chepelev's ability to capitalize on return games and thrive on familiar playing surfaces, particularly clay, provides him with a solid advantage.

Considering all available data, Andrey Chepelev appears to have the edge and is projected as the likely winner in their upcoming match.