Prediction of Andres Santamarta Roig vs Francisco Rocha at Maia Challenger 11-26-25

• In second serve performance, Francisco Rocha edges out Andres Santamarta Roig with a recent winning percentage of 45.44% compared to 43.65%.
• Who has the upper hand in first serve returns? Andres Santamarta Roig, winning 30.48% of first serve return points compared to Francisco Rocha's 26.39%.
• When it comes to winning return points on opponents' second serves, Andres also leads slightly with 45.17% to Francisco's 44.34%.
• When facing breakpoints, Andres Santamarta Roig saves 52.32%, slightly better than Francisco Rocha's 50.25%, indicating both player's efficiency in high-pressure moments.
• Over the past year, Andres has a better match win rate of 56.82%, surpassing Francisco's 46.81%, demonstrating greater overall match success.
• Andres shows a preference for clay courts with a 55% win rate, while Francisco performs better on hard courts with an identical 55% win rate to his opponent's on clay.
• Both players mainly compete in $10K Futures/ITF tournaments, showing nearly identical win rates, Andres at 50% and Francisco at 48.28%.
• How about the quality of their opponents over the last year? Andres has faced players with an average rank of 439.43, as opposed to Francisco's tougher competition at an average rank of 400.21.
• If this match goes to a deciding set, Andres has a strong potential advantage, having won 70% of deciding sets compared to Francisco’s 46%.
• With break point conversion, Francisco converts at a higher rate of 33.94% over Andres' 31.61%, giving him a slight efficiency edge in critical moments.

Editorial Prediction (November 26, 2025, UTC):

As we analyze the upcoming tennis match between Andres Santamarta Roig and Francisco Rocha, several factors come into play. Andres Santamarta Roig appears to be a stronger contender with his superior first serve return statistics and his impressive ability to save breakpoints under pressure. His year-long match win rate is higher, demonstrating consistent performance across his competitions.

However, Francisco Rocha's second serve performance is slightly stronger, and he demonstrates a better capability in converting break point opportunities. His experience against higher-ranked opposition could also provide him leverage in tightly contested scenarios.

Given the differences in playing surfaces, Andres' stronger performance on clay could be a deciding factor if the match is played on such a surface, while Francisco might have an edge on hard courts.

All considered, Andres Santamarta Roig seems to possess a more well-rounded advantage with his consistent year-long performance, superior pressure handling, and the likelihood of clinching deciding sets. Therefore, he is the more likely winner of this upcoming match.