Prediction of Aljaz Jeran vs Jordan Hasson at M25 Heraklion 11-26-25

• Second serve performance: Aljaz Jeran has a second serve win rate of 37.42%, slightly below Jordan Hasson's 38.36%. Does this small margin give Hasson an edge? It might, considering its correlation with match predictions.
• Return game analysis: Jeran wins 44.56% of second serve return points, while Hasson excels with a rate of 54.84%. Interestingly, first serve return rates are almost identical at 26.11% for Jeran and 26.00% for Hasson.
• Under pressure performance: Aljaz Jeran saves 47.34% of breakpoints, whereas Jordan Hasson's rate is higher at 52.38%, suggesting Hasson's resilience in crucial moments.
• Overall performance: Over the past year, Jeran holds a 58.62% match win rate versus Hasson's 62.50%, demonstrating Hasson's stronger recent form.
• Surface preference: Jeran thrives on Clay with a 55% win rate, but struggles on I.hard at 33%. Hasson performs best on I.hard at 55% and shows weakness on Clay with only a 35% success rate.
• Match experience: Both players primarily compete at the $10K tournament level, yet Hasson holds a slightly better win rate over the past year.
• Challenger caliber: Jeran's opponents have an average rank of 222.76, highlighting a difference in competition caliber compared to Hasson, who lacks recent opponent rank data.
• Deciding set outcomes: In crucial sets, Jeran has a 38% win rate, while Hasson has yet to win a deciding set, indicating potential issues under high pressure.
• Breakpoint success: Jeran converts breakpoints at 40.63%, outmatching Hasson's 33.33%, which could be crucial in tight matches.

Editorial Prediction (November 26, 2025, UTC):

As we compare the players head-to-head, it's apparent that Jordan Hasson holds several statistical advantages over Aljaz Jeran. His slightly superior second serve performance and higher return game proficiency make him a formidable opponent. Despite similar win percentages on the Futures/Satellites/ITF circuit, Hasson's recent form favors his chances of success.

Jeran demonstrates advantages on Clay and when converting breakpoints, yet his overall lower performance in key areas and against higher-ranked opponents sets him at a slight disadvantage.

A critical factor is their contrasting records in deciding sets, where Jeran's experience might offer an edge if the match reaches such a stage. Still, Jordan Hasson's higher breakpoint save rate and consistent performance against similar-tier competition suggest he is the more likely winner in this upcoming contest.