Prediction of Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Juncheng Shang at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai 10-02-25

• Which player has the edge on the second serve in recent statistics? Juncheng Shang, with a win rate of 48.82%, slightly outperforms Aleksandar Kovacevic, who wins 46.14%.
• In return games, Shang shows stronger performance, capturing 46.19% of points on his opponent's second serve against Kovacevic's 44.26%.
• On first serve returns, Shang again leads, winning 27.14% compared to Kovacevic's 21.06%—a significant indicator of potential advantage.
• Analyzing the ability to handle pressure, Kovacevic excels, saving 59.83% of breakpoints, in contrast to Shang's 50.00%.
• Looking back over the past year, Kovacevic has a higher match win rate of 49.28% compared to Shang's 33.33%.
• When considering surface performance, Kovacevic's best results are on indoor hard courts (60%), while Shang shines on clay (60%).
• In terms of competition level, Kovacevic competed more frequently on the Main tour, with a 55.56% win rate, whereas Shang's rate was 33.33%.
• Regarding direct encounters, Shang leads with one victory over Kovacevic in their sole match-up, winning 2 out of 3 sets.
• In matches going to a deciding set, Shang holds an advantage, winning 57% of these, compared to Kovacevic's 42%.
• Opponent strength over the last year shows Kovacevic challenging players with an average rank of 175.17, while Shang's opponents had an average rank of 74.1.

Editorial Prediction (October 1, 2025, UTC):

Aleksandar Kovacevic and Juncheng Shang enter this match with contrasting strengths. Shang has demonstrated better performance on second serve returns and first serve returns, areas that could play a crucial role in this encounter. Additionally, he has a superior win rate in deciding sets, suggesting resilience in longer matches.

However, Kovacevic's advantage in saving breakpoints indicates a strong ability to remain composed under pressure, and his higher win rate over the past year suggests a consistently competitive form. Moreover, his best performances align with indoor hard surfaces, which might be a factor in his favor depending on the match's surface.

Despite these factors, with Shang's recent head-to-head victory and stronger performance against higher-ranked opponents, he appears to have a slight advantage in this match. Therefore, Juncheng Shang is more likely to emerge as the winner based on current statistical edges.