Prediction of Alastair Gray vs Tiago Cacao at M25 Vale do Lobo 11-22-25

• Alastair Gray has a slight edge in second serve performance with 49.07% success, surpassing Tiago Cacao's 45.86%.
• Who excels in return games? Although Cacao has a minor lead in second serve returns with 45.91% compared to Gray's 44.57%, Gray lags behind in first serve returns with 24.74% against Cacao's 30.29%.
• Gray demonstrates resilience under pressure by saving 56.92% of breakpoints, while Cacao manages 52.97%.
• In overall performance, Gray's win rate over the past year is 70.77%, higher than Cacao's 61.54%.
• Both players excel on Hard courts with a win percentage of 68%, but Gray's weakest performance is on Grass, winning just 40%, whereas Cacao struggles most on Clay, achieving 48%.
• Gray has been more dominant at the $10K tournament level with an 80.77% win rate, outdoing Cacao's 68.18%.
• Gray's opponents have had an average rank of 493.58, whereas Cacao has faced tougher competition with an average rank of 310.
• Gray has a slight advantage in deciding set victories over the last year at 52%, compared to Cacao’s 50%.
• In recent matches, both players show similar capability in break point conversion, with Gray at 30.71% and Cacao at 31.25%.

Editorial Prediction (November 22, 2025, UTC):

Evaluating the players' recent performances, several key factors emerge. Alastair Gray has shown greater consistency in serving performance, demonstrating a slight edge in both second serve points and break point saving ability. His impressive overall win percentage and resilience in deciding sets also contribute to his strengths.

Tiago Cacao, on the other hand, stands out in return games, particularly against first serves, and has faced stronger competition, which might prepare him for more challenging scenarios. Despite these advantages, his slightly lower serving and breakpoint saving statistics could be areas where he trails Gray.

While both players exhibit strengths in specific areas, Gray's overall superior win rate, especially on his preferred Hard court surface, positions him as the probable favorite in this encounter. Based on the provided statistics and their competitive background, Alastair Gray is likely to secure the win in this upcoming match.